First Bank Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| FRBA Stock | USD 16.90 0.58 3.32% |
First Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast First Bank stock prices and determine the direction of First Bank's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of First Bank's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of First Bank's share price is at 53. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling First Bank, making its price go up or down. Momentum 53
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.469 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.46 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.74 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.935 | Wall Street Target Price 19.5 |
Using First Bank hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Bank from the perspective of First Bank response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards First Bank using First Bank's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards First using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of First Bank's stock price.
First Bank Implied Volatility | 0.93 |
First Bank's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of First Bank stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if First Bank's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that First Bank stock will not fluctuate a lot when First Bank's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of First Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 17.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.65. First Bank after-hype prediction price | USD 16.9 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Bank to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current First contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that First Bank will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0581% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With First Bank trading at USD 16.9, that is roughly USD 0.009823 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating First Bank's daily price movement you should consider acquiring First Bank options at the current volatility level of 0.93%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 First Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast First Bank's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in First Bank's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for First Bank stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current First Bank's open interest, investors have to compare it to First Bank's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of First Bank is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in First. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
First Bank Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
First Bank Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of First Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 17.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39, mean absolute percentage error of 0.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.65.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Bank's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
First Bank Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First Bank | First Bank Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
First Bank Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting First Bank's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Bank's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.56 and 18.90, respectively. We have considered First Bank's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Bank stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Bank stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.8388 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3877 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0234 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 23.6523 |
Predictive Modules for First Bank
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.First Bank After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of First Bank at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Bank or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of First Bank, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
First Bank Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting First Bank's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Bank's historical news coverage. First Bank's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.23 and 18.57, respectively. We have considered First Bank's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
First Bank is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Bank is based on 3 months time horizon.
First Bank Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First Bank is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Bank backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Bank, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 1.67 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 6 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
16.90 | 16.90 | 0.00 |
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First Bank Hype Timeline
First Bank is currently traded for 16.90. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. First is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on First Bank is about 988.17%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.88. About 57.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.97. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. First Bank last dividend was issued on the 7th of November 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Bank to cross-verify your projections.First Bank Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to First Bank's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Bank's future price movements. Getting to know how First Bank's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Bank may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BSRR | Sierra Bancorp | (0.15) | 10 per month | 0.78 | 0.20 | 4.28 | (1.69) | 6.92 | |
| BSVN | Bank7 Corp | (1.12) | 8 per month | 1.43 | (0.02) | 2.39 | (2.38) | 5.28 | |
| KRNY | Kearny Financial Corp | 0.06 | 7 per month | 1.17 | 0.11 | 4.55 | (2.06) | 8.18 | |
| CARE | Carter Bank and | (0.01) | 11 per month | 1.67 | 0.01 | 3.19 | (3.25) | 7.40 | |
| GCBC | Greene County Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.17 | (2.70) | 10.25 | |
| CWBC | Community West Bancshares | (0.15) | 14 per month | 0.95 | 0.09 | 2.75 | (2.00) | 7.93 | |
| NFBK | Northfield Bancorp | (0.15) | 10 per month | 1.45 | 0.04 | 3.61 | (3.18) | 7.76 | |
| HBCP | Home Bancorp | 0.14 | 2 per month | 1.18 | 0.07 | 3.62 | (1.95) | 6.45 | |
| WTBA | West Bancorporation | (0.27) | 24 per month | 1.28 | 0.01 | 2.70 | (1.89) | 8.75 | |
| FBIZ | First Business Financial | (0.04) | 7 per month | 0.95 | 0.09 | 3.35 | (1.55) | 6.72 |
Other Forecasting Options for First Bank
For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Bank's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Bank's price trends.First Bank Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Bank stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Bank could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Bank by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Bank Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Bank stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Bank shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Bank stock market strength indicators, traders can identify First Bank entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
First Bank Risk Indicators
The analysis of First Bank's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Bank's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.26 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.62 | |||
| Variance | 2.63 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.05 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.6 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.32) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for First Bank
The number of cover stories for First Bank depends on current market conditions and First Bank's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Bank is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Bank's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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First Bank Short Properties
First Bank's future price predictability will typically decrease when First Bank's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of First Bank often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential First Bank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Bank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 25.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 326.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Bank to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade First Stock refer to our How to Trade First Stock guide.You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Bank. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Bank listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.469 | Dividend Share 0.24 | Earnings Share 1.65 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.128 |
The market value of First Bank is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Bank's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Bank's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Bank's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Bank's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Bank's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Bank is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Bank's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.