Federal Signal Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| FSS Stock | USD 108.95 4.46 3.93% |
Federal Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Federal Signal's share price is approaching 42. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Federal Signal, making its price go up or down. Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.276 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.02 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.15 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.62 | Wall Street Target Price 133.8333 |
Using Federal Signal hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Federal Signal from the perspective of Federal Signal response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Federal Signal using Federal Signal's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Federal using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Federal Signal's stock price.
Federal Signal Short Interest
An investor who is long Federal Signal may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Federal Signal and may potentially protect profits, hedge Federal Signal with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 109.6537 | Short Percent 0.0842 | Short Ratio 6.13 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.9 M | 50 Day MA 112.0504 |
Federal Relative Strength Index
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Federal Signal on the next trading day is expected to be 111.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 92.75.Federal Signal Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Federal Signal's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Federal. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Federal can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Federal Signal. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Federal Signal's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Federal Signal.
Federal Signal Implied Volatility | 0.48 |
Federal Signal's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Federal Signal stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Federal Signal's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Federal Signal stock will not fluctuate a lot when Federal Signal's options are near their expiration.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Federal Signal on the next trading day is expected to be 111.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 92.75. Federal Signal after-hype prediction price | USD 113.43 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Federal Signal to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Federal contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Federal Signal will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.03% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Federal Signal trading at USD 108.95, that is roughly USD 0.0327 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Federal Signal's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Federal Signal options at the current volatility level of 0.48%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Federal Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Federal Signal's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Federal Signal's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Federal Signal stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Federal Signal's open interest, investors have to compare it to Federal Signal's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Federal Signal is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Federal. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Federal Signal Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Federal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Federal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Federal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Federal Signal Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Federal Signal on the next trading day is expected to be 111.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.52, mean absolute percentage error of 3.78, and the sum of the absolute errors of 92.75.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Federal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Federal Signal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Federal Signal Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Federal Signal | Federal Signal Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Federal Signal Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Federal Signal's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Federal Signal's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 110.54 and 113.22, respectively. We have considered Federal Signal's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Federal Signal stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Federal Signal stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.4406 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.5205 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0136 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 92.7492 |
Predictive Modules for Federal Signal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Federal Signal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Federal Signal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Federal Signal After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Federal Signal at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Federal Signal or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Federal Signal, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Federal Signal Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Federal Signal's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Federal Signal's historical news coverage. Federal Signal's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 112.09 and 114.77, respectively. We have considered Federal Signal's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Federal Signal is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Federal Signal is based on 3 months time horizon.
Federal Signal Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Federal Signal is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Federal Signal backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Federal Signal, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 1.34 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 12 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
108.95 | 113.43 | 0.02 |
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Federal Signal Hype Timeline
On the 28th of January Federal Signal is traded for 108.95. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Federal is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 113.43 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 138.14%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.02%. The volatility of related hype on Federal Signal is about 424.65%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 108.94. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.86 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 216.3 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 594.5 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Federal Signal to cross-verify your projections.Federal Signal Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Federal Signal's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Federal Signal's future price movements. Getting to know how Federal Signal's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Federal Signal may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ZWS | Zurn Elkay Water | (0.24) | 10 per month | 1.16 | (0.04) | 2.02 | (2.16) | 6.90 | |
| ESAB | ESAB Corp | 0.62 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.31 | (2.96) | 7.88 | |
| MOG-A | Moog Inc | 0.75 | 2 per month | 0.83 | 0.25 | 3.68 | (1.72) | 11.04 | |
| TTC | Toro Co | 1.48 | 9 per month | 0.74 | 0.13 | 2.94 | (1.82) | 13.49 | |
| R | Ryder System | 1.21 | 11 per month | 2.80 | 0.01 | 3.54 | (3.03) | 12.37 | |
| RYAAY | Ryanair Holdings PLC | (0.03) | 7 per month | 1.22 | 0.06 | 3.75 | (2.51) | 7.50 | |
| SSD | Simpson Manufacturing | (1.13) | 11 per month | 1.54 | (0.01) | 2.84 | (2.63) | 9.75 | |
| IESC | IES Holdings | (6.25) | 10 per month | 3.54 | 0.11 | 6.33 | (5.56) | 25.84 | |
| ADT | ADT Inc | 0.75 | 17 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.73 | (2.31) | 9.78 |
Other Forecasting Options for Federal Signal
For every potential investor in Federal, whether a beginner or expert, Federal Signal's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Federal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Federal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Federal Signal's price trends.Federal Signal Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Federal Signal stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Federal Signal could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Federal Signal by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Federal Signal Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Federal Signal stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Federal Signal shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Federal Signal stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Federal Signal entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 108.95 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 108.95 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.23) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (4.46) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.94 |
Federal Signal Risk Indicators
The analysis of Federal Signal's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Federal Signal's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting federal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.92 | |||
| Variance | 3.69 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Federal Signal
The number of cover stories for Federal Signal depends on current market conditions and Federal Signal's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Federal Signal is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Federal Signal's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Federal Signal Short Properties
Federal Signal's future price predictability will typically decrease when Federal Signal's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Federal Signal often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Federal Signal's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Federal Signal's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 61.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 91.1 M |
Additional Tools for Federal Stock Analysis
When running Federal Signal's price analysis, check to measure Federal Signal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Federal Signal is operating at the current time. Most of Federal Signal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Federal Signal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Federal Signal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Federal Signal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.