Geo Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| GEO Stock | USD 15.84 0.14 0.88% |
Geo Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Geo's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Geo's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Geo fundamentals over time.
As of today, the relative strength index (RSI) of Geo's share price is approaching 43. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Geo, making its price go up or down. Momentum 43
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 5.526 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.315 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.8533 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.3275 | Wall Street Target Price 32.25 |
Using Geo hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Geo Group from the perspective of Geo response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Geo using Geo's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Geo using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Geo's stock price.
Geo Short Interest
An investor who is long Geo may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Geo and may potentially protect profits, hedge Geo with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 21.3962 | Short Percent 0.0757 | Short Ratio 5.08 | Shares Short Prior Month 9.3 M | 50 Day MA 16.542 |
Geo Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Geo Group on the next trading day is expected to be 15.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.74.Geo Group Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Geo's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Geo. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Geo can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Geo Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Geo's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Geo.
Geo Implied Volatility | 0.65 |
Geo's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Geo Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Geo's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Geo stock will not fluctuate a lot when Geo's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Geo Group on the next trading day is expected to be 15.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.74. Geo after-hype prediction price | USD 15.8 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Geo to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Geo contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Geo Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0406% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Geo trading at USD 15.84, that is roughly USD 0.006435 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Geo's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Geo Group options at the current volatility level of 0.65%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Geo Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Geo's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Geo's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Geo stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Geo's open interest, investors have to compare it to Geo's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Geo is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Geo. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Geo Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Geo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Geo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Geo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Geo Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Geo Group on the next trading day is expected to be 15.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33, mean absolute percentage error of 0.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.74.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Geo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Geo's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Geo Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Geo | Geo Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Geo Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Geo's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Geo's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.21 and 18.47, respectively. We have considered Geo's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Geo stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Geo stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.8981 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 9.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3347 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0204 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 19.745 |
Predictive Modules for Geo
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Geo Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Geo's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Geo After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Geo at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Geo or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Geo, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Geo Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Geo's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Geo's historical news coverage. Geo's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.15 and 18.45, respectively. We have considered Geo's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Geo is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Geo Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Geo Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Geo is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Geo backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Geo, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 2.63 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
15.84 | 15.80 | 0.00 |
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Geo Hype Timeline
On the 2nd of February Geo Group is traded for 15.84. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.03. Geo is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Geo is about 163.1%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.81. About 95.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.49. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Geo Group has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.02. The entity last dividend was issued on the 22nd of January 2021. The firm had 3:2 split on the 25th of April 2017. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Geo to cross-verify your projections.Geo Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Geo's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Geo's future price movements. Getting to know how Geo's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Geo may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NL | NL Industries | (0.09) | 6 per month | 2.35 | 0.03 | 5.51 | (4.21) | 20.34 | |
| MG | Mistras Group | (0.08) | 8 per month | 1.48 | 0.16 | 4.20 | (2.81) | 27.65 | |
| REZI | Resideo Technologies | (0.13) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.79 | (4.26) | 23.75 | |
| BRC | Brady | 0.57 | 7 per month | 1.03 | 0.08 | 2.35 | (1.89) | 5.12 | |
| BCO | Brinks Company | (1.51) | 9 per month | 1.32 | 0.06 | 3.11 | (2.28) | 10.50 | |
| ALLE | Allegion PLC | 0.44 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.15 | (1.99) | 5.10 | |
| CIX | CompX International | 0.31 | 7 per month | 2.14 | 0.02 | 3.07 | (4.00) | 19.01 | |
| MSA | MSA Safety | 2.01 | 8 per month | 1.61 | 0.04 | 3.11 | (2.05) | 11.36 | |
| EVLVW | Evolv Technologies Holdings | 0.03 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 21.05 | (21.43) | 52.99 | |
| NSSC | NAPCO Security Technologies | 1.10 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.98 | (4.00) | 14.26 | |
| LDDFF | Liberty Defense Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 8.70 | (10.00) | 21.76 | |
| GFAI | Guardforce AI Co | (22.00) | 30 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 10.94 | (9.23) | 25.97 |
Other Forecasting Options for Geo
For every potential investor in Geo, whether a beginner or expert, Geo's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Geo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Geo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Geo's price trends.Geo Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Geo stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Geo could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Geo by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Geo Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Geo stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Geo shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Geo stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Geo Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 34322.81 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.32) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 15.88 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 15.87 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.11) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.14) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 43.8 |
Geo Risk Indicators
The analysis of Geo's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Geo's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting geo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.91 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.6 | |||
| Variance | 6.78 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Geo
The number of cover stories for Geo depends on current market conditions and Geo's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Geo is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Geo's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Geo Short Properties
Geo's future price predictability will typically decrease when Geo's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Geo Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Geo's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Geo's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 134.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 76.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Geo to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.
Will Commercial Services & Supplies sector continue expanding? Could Geo diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Geo. Market participants price Geo higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Geo data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 5.526 | Earnings Share 1.65 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.131 | Return On Assets |
Investors evaluate Geo Group using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Geo's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Geo's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Geo's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Geo is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Geo's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.