Geron Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| GERN Stock | USD 1.62 0.01 0.62% |
Geron Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Geron's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Geron's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Geron fundamentals over time.
As of today the rsi of Geron's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.04) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.12) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.03) | Wall Street Target Price 3.4 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.04) |
Using Geron hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Geron from the perspective of Geron response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Geron using Geron's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Geron using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Geron's stock price.
Geron Short Interest
An investor who is long Geron may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Geron and may potentially protect profits, hedge Geron with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 1.3381 | Short Percent 0.0957 | Short Ratio 5.57 | Shares Short Prior Month 71.3 M | 50 Day MA 1.35 |
Geron Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Geron on the next trading day is expected to be 1.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.49.Geron Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Geron's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Geron. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Geron can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Geron. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Geron's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Geron.
Geron Implied Volatility | 2.4 |
Geron's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Geron stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Geron's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Geron stock will not fluctuate a lot when Geron's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Geron on the next trading day is expected to be 1.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.49. Geron after-hype prediction price | USD 1.67 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Geron to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Geron contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Geron will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.15% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Geron trading at USD 1.62, that is roughly USD 0.00243 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Geron's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Geron options at the current volatility level of 2.4%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Geron Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Geron's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Geron's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Geron stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Geron's open interest, investors have to compare it to Geron's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Geron is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Geron. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Geron Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Geron price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Geron using various technical indicators. When you analyze Geron charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Geron Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Geron on the next trading day is expected to be 1.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.49.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Geron Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Geron's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Geron Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Geron | Geron Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Geron Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Geron's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Geron's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 5.09, respectively. We have considered Geron's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Geron stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Geron stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0087 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0416 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0313 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.4949 |
Predictive Modules for Geron
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Geron. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Geron After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Geron at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Geron or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Geron, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Geron Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Geron's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Geron's historical news coverage. Geron's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.08 and 5.22, respectively. We have considered Geron's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Geron is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Geron is based on 3 months time horizon.
Geron Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Geron is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Geron backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Geron, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.63 | 3.43 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.62 | 1.67 | 2.45 |
|
Geron Hype Timeline
Geron is currently traded for 1.62. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. Geron is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 1.67 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 2.45%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.63%. The volatility of related hype on Geron is about 3942.53%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.67. Geron currently holds 121.72 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.39, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Geron to cross-verify your projections.Geron Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Geron's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Geron's future price movements. Getting to know how Geron's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Geron may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DAWN | Day One Biopharmaceuticals | (0.40) | 9 per month | 3.88 | 0.07 | 11.23 | (6.53) | 33.27 | |
| RZLT | Rezolute | 0.24 | 9 per month | 15.07 | 0.02 | 18.05 | (9.22) | 99.29 | |
| ARVN | Arvinas | (0.35) | 9 per month | 3.10 | 0.12 | 5.91 | (5.07) | 28.90 | |
| VALN | Valneva SE ADR | 0.82 | 4 per month | 2.36 | 0.03 | 5.40 | (4.81) | 15.59 | |
| TYRA | Tyra Biosciences | (0.46) | 9 per month | 1.81 | 0.25 | 6.05 | (3.64) | 34.11 | |
| VIR | Vir Biotechnology | 0.51 | 7 per month | 3.40 | 0.11 | 8.08 | (5.45) | 23.40 | |
| SVRA | Savara Inc | (0.21) | 11 per month | 3.11 | 0.09 | 8.25 | (5.30) | 24.50 | |
| REPL | Replimune Group | (0.09) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 5.56 | (5.32) | 14.00 | |
| LENZ | LENZ Therapeutics | 0.98 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 8.05 | (6.56) | 40.02 | |
| AVBP | ArriVent BioPharma Common | (0.17) | 4 per month | 2.94 | 0.05 | 6.71 | (4.81) | 18.12 |
Other Forecasting Options for Geron
For every potential investor in Geron, whether a beginner or expert, Geron's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Geron Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Geron. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Geron's price trends.Geron Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Geron stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Geron could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Geron by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Geron Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Geron stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Geron shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Geron stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Geron entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 429747.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.1667 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1.61 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1.61 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.015 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.01 |
Geron Risk Indicators
The analysis of Geron's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Geron's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting geron stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.8 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.48 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.67 | |||
| Variance | 13.47 | |||
| Downside Variance | 9.39 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.17 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.85) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Geron
The number of cover stories for Geron depends on current market conditions and Geron's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Geron is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Geron's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Geron Short Properties
Geron's future price predictability will typically decrease when Geron's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Geron often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Geron's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Geron's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 646 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 406.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Geron to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Geron Stock, please use our How to Invest in Geron guide.You can also try the FinTech Suite module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.
Will Biotechnology sector continue expanding? Could Geron diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Geron. Market participants price Geron higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Geron data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Earnings Share (0.12) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.671 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Understanding Geron requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Geron's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Geron's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Geron's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Geron's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Geron is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Geron's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.