Grupo Financiero Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

GGAL Stock  USD 55.51  0.03  0.05%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Grupo Financiero Galicia on the next trading day is expected to be 55.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.82. Grupo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Grupo Financiero's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Grupo Financiero's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Grupo Financiero fundamentals over time.
  
The value of Receivables Turnover is estimated to slide to 6.55. The value of Fixed Asset Turnover is estimated to slide to 5.78. Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to rise to about 143.5 M this year. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to rise to about 62.1 B this year.
Triple exponential smoothing for Grupo Financiero - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Grupo Financiero prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Grupo Financiero price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Grupo Financiero Galicia.

Grupo Financiero Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Grupo Financiero Galicia on the next trading day is expected to be 55.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.01, mean absolute percentage error of 1.61, and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.82.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Grupo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Grupo Financiero's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Grupo Financiero Stock Forecast Pattern

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Grupo Financiero Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Grupo Financiero's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Grupo Financiero's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 53.07 and 58.24, respectively. We have considered Grupo Financiero's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
55.51
55.65
Expected Value
58.24
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Grupo Financiero stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Grupo Financiero stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.205
MADMean absolute deviation1.0139
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0209
SAESum of the absolute errors59.8172
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Grupo Financiero observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Grupo Financiero Galicia observations.

Predictive Modules for Grupo Financiero

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grupo Financiero Galicia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
54.2856.8759.46
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
35.1837.7761.03
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
52.7455.7658.79
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
12.1813.3814.85
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Grupo Financiero. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Grupo Financiero's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Grupo Financiero's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Grupo Financiero Galicia.

Other Forecasting Options for Grupo Financiero

For every potential investor in Grupo, whether a beginner or expert, Grupo Financiero's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Grupo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Grupo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Grupo Financiero's price trends.

Grupo Financiero Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Grupo Financiero stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Grupo Financiero could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Grupo Financiero by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Grupo Financiero Galicia Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Grupo Financiero's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Grupo Financiero's current price.

Grupo Financiero Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Grupo Financiero stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Grupo Financiero shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Grupo Financiero stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Grupo Financiero Galicia entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Grupo Financiero Risk Indicators

The analysis of Grupo Financiero's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Grupo Financiero's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting grupo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Grupo Financiero Galicia is a strong investment it is important to analyze Grupo Financiero's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Grupo Financiero's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Grupo Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Grupo Financiero to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Is Diversified Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Grupo Financiero. If investors know Grupo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Grupo Financiero listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
2.106
Earnings Share
2.27
Revenue Per Share
4.5 K
Quarterly Revenue Growth
1.343
Return On Assets
0.0685
The market value of Grupo Financiero Galicia is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Grupo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Grupo Financiero's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Grupo Financiero's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Grupo Financiero's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Grupo Financiero's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Grupo Financiero's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Grupo Financiero is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Grupo Financiero's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.