Graco Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| GGG Stock | USD 92.42 0.84 0.92% |
Graco Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Graco's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 6th of February 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Graco's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.254 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.7357 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.1792 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.4575 | Wall Street Target Price 95.3333 |
Using Graco hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Graco Inc from the perspective of Graco response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Graco using Graco's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Graco using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Graco's stock price.
Graco Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Graco's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Graco. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Graco stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 84.2171 | Short Percent 0.0334 | Short Ratio 5.98 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.7 M | 50 Day MA 84.5438 |
Graco Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Graco Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 92.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.76 and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.81.Graco Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Graco's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Graco. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Graco can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Graco Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Graco's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Graco.
Graco Implied Volatility | 0.32 |
Graco's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Graco Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Graco's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Graco stock will not fluctuate a lot when Graco's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Graco Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 92.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.76 and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.81. Graco after-hype prediction price | USD 92.4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Graco to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Graco contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Graco Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.02% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Graco trading at USD 92.42, that is roughly USD 0.0185 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Graco's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Graco Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.32%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Graco Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Graco's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Graco's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Graco stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Graco's open interest, investors have to compare it to Graco's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Graco is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Graco. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Graco Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Graco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Graco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Graco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Graco Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Graco Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 92.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.76, mean absolute percentage error of 1.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.81.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Graco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Graco's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Graco Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Graco | Graco Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Graco Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Graco's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Graco's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 91.24 and 93.77, respectively. We have considered Graco's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Graco stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Graco stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0675 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7635 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0091 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 45.8082 |
Predictive Modules for Graco
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Graco Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Graco After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Graco at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Graco or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Graco, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Graco Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Graco's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Graco's historical news coverage. Graco's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 91.13 and 93.67, respectively. We have considered Graco's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Graco is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Graco Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Graco Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Graco is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Graco backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Graco, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 1.27 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 7 Events / Month | 10 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
92.42 | 92.40 | 0.02 |
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Graco Hype Timeline
On the 6th of February Graco Inc is traded for 92.42. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Graco is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 92.4. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.22%. The volatility of related hype on Graco is about 902.19%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 92.45. About 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.74. Graco Inc last dividend was issued on the 16th of January 2026. The entity had 3:1 split on the 28th of December 2017. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Graco to cross-verify your projections.Graco Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Graco's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Graco's future price movements. Getting to know how Graco's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Graco may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FELE | Franklin Electric Co | (1.52) | 9 per month | 0.97 | 0.09 | 2.56 | (1.73) | 6.31 | |
| AME | Ametek Inc | 3.00 | 11 per month | 0.63 | 0.16 | 1.91 | (1.34) | 4.58 | |
| FLS | Flowserve | (0.54) | 12 per month | 1.21 | 0.12 | 2.46 | (2.28) | 8.50 | |
| DCI | Donaldson | 0.03 | 10 per month | 0.74 | 0.21 | 2.43 | (1.74) | 9.29 | |
| IEX | IDEX Corporation | 0.29 | 8 per month | 0.61 | 0.21 | 2.68 | (1.54) | 6.54 | |
| ITT | ITT Inc | 1.33 | 11 per month | 1.49 | 0.06 | 2.20 | (2.05) | 7.90 | |
| IR | Ingersoll Rand | 0.74 | 11 per month | 1.26 | 0.16 | 4.25 | (2.52) | 8.77 | |
| CR | Crane Company | (2.61) | 9 per month | 2.46 | (0.02) | 2.36 | (2.32) | 15.15 | |
| PH | Parker Hannifin | (5.98) | 9 per month | 0.67 | 0.21 | 2.46 | (1.57) | 9.94 | |
| PNR | Pentair PLC | 0.07 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.77 | (2.66) | 13.49 | |
| WTS | Watts Water Technologies | 5.30 | 8 per month | 1.36 | 0.10 | 2.75 | (1.61) | 9.37 | |
| GRC | Gorman Rupp | 0.91 | 7 per month | 0.92 | 0.23 | 3.62 | (2.18) | 7.79 | |
| EPAC | Enerpac Tool Group | 0.81 | 9 per month | 2.05 | 0 | 3.65 | (2.83) | 12.80 |
Other Forecasting Options for Graco
For every potential investor in Graco, whether a beginner or expert, Graco's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Graco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Graco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Graco's price trends.Graco Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Graco stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Graco could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Graco by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Graco Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Graco stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Graco shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Graco stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Graco Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 25229.05 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.4541 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 91.91 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 92.08 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.94 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.84 |
Graco Risk Indicators
The analysis of Graco's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Graco's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting graco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8907 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.05 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Variance | 1.49 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.63 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.1 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.92) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Graco
The number of cover stories for Graco depends on current market conditions and Graco's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Graco is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Graco's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Graco Short Properties
Graco's future price predictability will typically decrease when Graco's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Graco Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Graco's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Graco's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 169.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 624.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Graco to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
Can Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components industry sustain growth momentum? Does Graco have expansion opportunities? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Graco. Market participants price Graco higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Determining accurate worth demands scrutiny of both present operating results and projected expansion capacity. Evaluating Graco demands reviewing these metrics collectively while recognizing certain factors exert disproportionate influence.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.254 | Dividend Share 1.12 | Earnings Share 3.18 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.081 |
Investors evaluate Graco Inc using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Graco's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Graco's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Graco's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Graco is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Graco's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.