Heritage Insurance Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| HRTG Stock | USD 25.49 0.41 1.58% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Heritage Insurance Hldgs on the next trading day is expected to be 25.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70 and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.31. Heritage Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Heritage Insurance's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026 the relative strength indicator of Heritage Insurance's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 5.13 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.96 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.2633 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.3167 | Wall Street Target Price 35.5 |
Using Heritage Insurance hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Heritage Insurance Hldgs from the perspective of Heritage Insurance response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Heritage Insurance using Heritage Insurance's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Heritage using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Heritage Insurance's stock price.
Heritage Insurance Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Heritage Insurance's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Heritage. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Heritage Insurance stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 24.02 | Short Percent 0.0547 | Short Ratio 4.41 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.6 M | 50 Day MA 28.2552 |
Heritage Insurance Hldgs Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Heritage Insurance's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Heritage. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Heritage can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Heritage Insurance Hldgs. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Heritage Insurance Implied Volatility | 0.9 |
Heritage Insurance's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Heritage Insurance Hldgs stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Heritage Insurance's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Heritage Insurance stock will not fluctuate a lot when Heritage Insurance's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Heritage Insurance Hldgs on the next trading day is expected to be 25.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70 and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.31. Heritage Insurance after-hype prediction price | USD 25.57 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Heritage Insurance to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Heritage contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Heritage Insurance Hldgs will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0563% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Heritage Insurance trading at USD 25.49, that is roughly USD 0.0143 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Heritage Insurance's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Heritage Insurance Hldgs options at the current volatility level of 0.9%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Heritage Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Heritage Insurance's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Heritage Insurance's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Heritage Insurance stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Heritage Insurance's open interest, investors have to compare it to Heritage Insurance's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Heritage Insurance is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Heritage. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Heritage Insurance Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Heritage price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Heritage using various technical indicators. When you analyze Heritage charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Heritage Insurance Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Heritage Insurance Hldgs on the next trading day is expected to be 25.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70, mean absolute percentage error of 1.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.31.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Heritage Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Heritage Insurance's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Heritage Insurance Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Heritage Insurance | Heritage Insurance Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Heritage Insurance Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Heritage Insurance's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Heritage Insurance's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.54 and 28.85, respectively. We have considered Heritage Insurance's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Heritage Insurance stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Heritage Insurance stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.4649 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0608 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7003 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0252 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 41.315 |
Predictive Modules for Heritage Insurance
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Heritage Insurance Hldgs. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Heritage Insurance's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Heritage Insurance After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Heritage Insurance at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Heritage Insurance or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Heritage Insurance, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Heritage Insurance Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Heritage Insurance's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Heritage Insurance's historical news coverage. Heritage Insurance's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.42 and 28.72, respectively. We have considered Heritage Insurance's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Heritage Insurance is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Heritage Insurance Hldgs is based on 3 months time horizon.
Heritage Insurance Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Heritage Insurance is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Heritage Insurance backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Heritage Insurance, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 3.15 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
25.49 | 25.57 | 0.31 |
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Heritage Insurance Hype Timeline
Heritage Insurance Hldgs is currently traded for 25.49. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. Heritage is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 25.57 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.31%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Heritage Insurance is about 1006.39%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.54. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 816.99 M. Net Income was 61.54 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 300.75 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Heritage Insurance to cross-verify your projections.Heritage Insurance Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Heritage Insurance's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Heritage Insurance's future price movements. Getting to know how Heritage Insurance's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Heritage Insurance may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| UVE | Universal Insurance Holdings | 1.31 | 11 per month | 1.97 | (0.01) | 3.79 | (3.08) | 18.12 | |
| UFCS | United Fire Group | 0.18 | 11 per month | 1.14 | 0.05 | 2.14 | (2.09) | 17.21 | |
| ASIC | Ategrity Specialty Insurance | (0.14) | 12 per month | 2.14 | (0.02) | 3.97 | (3.44) | 8.91 | |
| BOW | Bowhead Specialty Holdings | (0.03) | 8 per month | 2.54 | (0.01) | 3.56 | (3.89) | 12.02 | |
| DGICA | Donegal Group A | 0.14 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.99 | (2.52) | 5.10 | |
| ACIC | American Coastal Insurance | (0.14) | 18 per month | 1.45 | (0.05) | 2.82 | (2.36) | 8.47 | |
| SAFT | Safety Insurance Group | 1.01 | 8 per month | 1.08 | 0.06 | 2.22 | (2.07) | 6.16 | |
| AMAL | Amalgamated Bank | 0.80 | 4 per month | 1.16 | 0.22 | 3.60 | (2.09) | 7.38 | |
| UVSP | Univest Pennsylvania | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.09 | 0.07 | 3.42 | (1.85) | 5.95 | |
| SBSI | Southside Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.94 | 0.12 | 2.73 | (1.57) | 5.24 |
Other Forecasting Options for Heritage Insurance
For every potential investor in Heritage, whether a beginner or expert, Heritage Insurance's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Heritage Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Heritage. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Heritage Insurance's price trends.Heritage Insurance Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Heritage Insurance stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Heritage Insurance could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Heritage Insurance by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Heritage Insurance Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Heritage Insurance stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Heritage Insurance shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Heritage Insurance stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Heritage Insurance Hldgs entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 10631.05 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.36) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 25.63 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 25.58 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.34) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.41) |
Heritage Insurance Risk Indicators
The analysis of Heritage Insurance's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Heritage Insurance's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting heritage stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.34 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.89 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.1 | |||
| Variance | 9.59 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.82 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.35 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.46) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Heritage Insurance
The number of cover stories for Heritage Insurance depends on current market conditions and Heritage Insurance's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Heritage Insurance is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Heritage Insurance's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Heritage Insurance Short Properties
Heritage Insurance's future price predictability will typically decrease when Heritage Insurance's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Heritage Insurance Hldgs often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Heritage Insurance's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Heritage Insurance's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 30.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 544 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Heritage Insurance to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Heritage Insurance. If investors know Heritage will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Heritage Insurance listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 5.13 | Earnings Share 4.83 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.003 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Heritage Insurance Hldgs is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Heritage that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Heritage Insurance's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Heritage Insurance's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Heritage Insurance's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Heritage Insurance's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Heritage Insurance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Heritage Insurance is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Heritage Insurance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.