Safety Insurance Group Stock Price Prediction
| SAFT Stock | USD 85.89 1.03 1.21% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
64
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 12.308 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.4 | Wall Street Target Price 70 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1.4 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.287 |
Using Safety Insurance hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Safety Insurance Group from the perspective of Safety Insurance response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Safety Insurance to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Safety because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Safety Insurance after-hype prediction price | USD 84.85 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Safety |
Safety Insurance After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Safety Insurance at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Safety Insurance or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Safety Insurance, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Safety Insurance Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Safety Insurance's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Safety Insurance's historical news coverage. Safety Insurance's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 83.04 and 86.66, respectively. We have considered Safety Insurance's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Safety Insurance is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Safety Insurance is based on 3 months time horizon.
Safety Insurance Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Safety Insurance is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Safety Insurance backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Safety Insurance, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 1.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
85.89 | 84.85 | 0.01 |
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Safety Insurance Hype Timeline
Safety Insurance is at this time traded for 85.89. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Safety is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 84.85. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.0%. The volatility of related hype on Safety Insurance is about 1506.21%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 85.89. About 84.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.48. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Safety Insurance has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.31. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.07. The firm last dividend was issued on the 2nd of December 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Safety Insurance Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Safety Insurance Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Safety Insurance's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Safety Insurance's future price movements. Getting to know how Safety Insurance's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Safety Insurance may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SIGI | Selective Insurance Group | (2.56) | 10 per month | 1.22 | 0.02 | 2.13 | (1.82) | 8.59 | |
| KMPR | Kemper | 0.37 | 10 per month | 1.07 | 0.08 | 2.28 | (1.57) | 5.66 | |
| DGICB | Donegal Group B | 0.00 | 9 per month | 2.39 | 0.08 | 7.61 | (4.52) | 14.48 | |
| ARGO-PA | Argo Group International | 0.28 | 20 per month | 0.27 | (0.30) | 0.60 | (0.48) | 1.78 | |
| GBLI | Global Indemnity PLC | (0.50) | 6 per month | 0.98 | 0.03 | 2.91 | (1.97) | 7.14 | |
| HMN | Horace Mann Educators | (0.70) | 9 per month | 1.34 | 0.11 | 2.13 | (2.23) | 11.51 | |
| RLI | RLI Corp | 0.16 | 11 per month | 1.15 | 0.11 | 1.76 | (1.82) | 7.01 | |
| STC | Stewart Information Services | 1.65 | 9 per month | 1.41 | (0.01) | 3.35 | (2.66) | 10.03 | |
| ARGO | Argo Group International | 0.04 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (1.05) | 0.14 | (0.17) | 0.65 | |
| NODK | NI Holdings | (0.20) | 5 per month | 1.23 | 0.02 | 2.13 | (2.04) | 5.60 | |
| DGICA | Donegal Group A | 0.01 | 10 per month | 1.63 | 0.02 | 2.51 | (1.90) | 12.60 | |
| SIGIP | Selective Insurance Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.74 | (0.16) | 1.17 | (1.29) | 3.35 |
Safety Insurance Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Safety price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Safety using various technical indicators. When you analyze Safety charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Safety Insurance Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Safety Insurance stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Safety Insurance Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Safety Insurance based on analysis of Safety Insurance hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Safety Insurance's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Safety Insurance's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0428 | 0.0431 | 0.0478 | 0.0294 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.46 | 1.57 | 1.2 | 0.78 |
Story Coverage note for Safety Insurance
The number of cover stories for Safety Insurance depends on current market conditions and Safety Insurance's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Safety Insurance is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Safety Insurance's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Safety Insurance Short Properties
Safety Insurance's future price predictability will typically decrease when Safety Insurance's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Safety Insurance Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Safety Insurance's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Safety Insurance's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 14.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 517.6 M |
Additional Tools for Safety Stock Analysis
When running Safety Insurance's price analysis, check to measure Safety Insurance's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Safety Insurance is operating at the current time. Most of Safety Insurance's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Safety Insurance's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Safety Insurance's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Safety Insurance to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.