Hilltop Holdings Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| HTH Stock | USD 32.27 0.62 1.96% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hilltop Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 32.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.45. Hilltop Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Hilltop Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Hilltop |
Hilltop Holdings Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hilltop Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 32.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42, mean absolute percentage error of 0.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.45.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hilltop Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hilltop Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Hilltop Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
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Hilltop Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Hilltop Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hilltop Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 30.23 and 34.28, respectively. We have considered Hilltop Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hilltop Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hilltop Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.4103 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0084 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4241 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0132 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 25.4488 |
Predictive Modules for Hilltop Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hilltop Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hilltop Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Hilltop Holdings
For every potential investor in Hilltop, whether a beginner or expert, Hilltop Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hilltop Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hilltop. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hilltop Holdings' price trends.Hilltop Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hilltop Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hilltop Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hilltop Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Hilltop Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hilltop Holdings' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hilltop Holdings' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Hilltop Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hilltop Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hilltop Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hilltop Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hilltop Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Hilltop Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Hilltop Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hilltop Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hilltop stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.11 | |||
| Variance | 4.43 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.36 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.17 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.75) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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When determining whether Hilltop Holdings offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Hilltop Holdings' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Hilltop Holdings Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Hilltop Holdings Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hilltop Holdings to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Hilltop Stock please use our How to Invest in Hilltop Holdings guide.You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hilltop Holdings. If investors know Hilltop will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hilltop Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.20) | Dividend Share 0.67 | Earnings Share 1.63 | Revenue Per Share 17.973 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) |
The market value of Hilltop Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hilltop that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hilltop Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hilltop Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hilltop Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hilltop Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hilltop Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hilltop Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hilltop Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.