Insteel Industries Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| IIIN Stock | USD 33.06 0.00 0.00% |
Insteel Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Insteel Industries' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Insteel Industries' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Insteel Industries fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Insteel Industries' share price is at 52. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Insteel Industries, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 6.033 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.71 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.72 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.2 | Wall Street Target Price 42 |
Using Insteel Industries hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Insteel Industries from the perspective of Insteel Industries response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Insteel Industries using Insteel Industries' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Insteel using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Insteel Industries' stock price.
Insteel Industries Short Interest
An investor who is long Insteel Industries may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Insteel Industries and may potentially protect profits, hedge Insteel Industries with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 34.7368 | Short Percent 0.0284 | Short Ratio 3.24 | Shares Short Prior Month 227.7 K | 50 Day MA 32.1654 |
Insteel Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Insteel Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 33.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.24.Insteel Industries Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Insteel Industries' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Insteel. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Insteel can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Insteel Industries. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Insteel Industries' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Insteel Industries.
Insteel Industries Implied Volatility | 0.38 |
Insteel Industries' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Insteel Industries stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Insteel Industries' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Insteel Industries stock will not fluctuate a lot when Insteel Industries' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Insteel Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 33.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.24. Insteel Industries after-hype prediction price | USD 33.06 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Insteel Industries to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Insteel contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Insteel Industries will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0238% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Insteel Industries trading at USD 33.06, that is roughly USD 0.007852 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Insteel Industries' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Insteel Industries options at the current volatility level of 0.38%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Insteel Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Insteel Industries' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Insteel Industries' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Insteel Industries stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Insteel Industries' open interest, investors have to compare it to Insteel Industries' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Insteel Industries is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Insteel. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Insteel Industries Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Insteel price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Insteel using various technical indicators. When you analyze Insteel charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Insteel Industries Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Insteel Industries' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1986-09-30 | Previous Quarter 38.6 M | Current Value 15.6 M | Quarterly Volatility 28.2 M |
Insteel Industries Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Insteel Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 33.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54, mean absolute percentage error of 0.41, and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.24.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Insteel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Insteel Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Insteel Industries Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Insteel Industries | Insteel Industries Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Insteel Industries Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Insteel Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Insteel Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.86 and 35.69, respectively. We have considered Insteel Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Insteel Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Insteel Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.2262 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5449 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.017 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 33.2417 |
Predictive Modules for Insteel Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Insteel Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Insteel Industries After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Insteel Industries at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Insteel Industries or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Insteel Industries, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Insteel Industries Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Insteel Industries' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Insteel Industries' historical news coverage. Insteel Industries' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 31.16 and 34.96, respectively. We have considered Insteel Industries' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Insteel Industries is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Insteel Industries is based on 3 months time horizon.
Insteel Industries Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Insteel Industries is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Insteel Industries backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Insteel Industries, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 1.92 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
33.06 | 33.06 | 0.00 |
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Insteel Industries Hype Timeline
Insteel Industries is currently traded for 33.06. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Insteel is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on Insteel Industries is about 713.75%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 33.03. About 84.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.79. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Insteel Industries has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.36. The entity last dividend was issued on the 28th of November 2025. The firm had 2:1 split on the 19th of June 2006. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Insteel Industries to cross-verify your projections.Insteel Industries Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Insteel Industries' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Insteel Industries' future price movements. Getting to know how Insteel Industries' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Insteel Industries may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NWPX | Northwest Pipe | (0.22) | 8 per month | 1.39 | 0.15 | 3.78 | (2.68) | 10.96 | |
| RYI | Ryerson Holding Corp | 0.89 | 9 per month | 2.19 | 0.13 | 4.22 | (4.44) | 11.34 | |
| SNCY | Sun Country Airlines | 0.02 | 7 per month | 1.94 | 0.19 | 6.22 | (4.25) | 13.97 | |
| HY | Hyster Yale Materials Handling | (1.42) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.10 | (4.68) | 20.40 | |
| HTLD | Heartland Express | (0.19) | 11 per month | 1.41 | 0.14 | 5.38 | (2.62) | 10.17 | |
| ADSE | Ads Tec Energy | 0.06 | 8 per month | 2.52 | 0.06 | 5.43 | (4.04) | 17.85 | |
| ASPN | Aspen Aerogels | (0.08) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 5.80 | (6.12) | 52.64 | |
| BXC | BlueLinx Holdings | (1.78) | 9 per month | 2.38 | (0.0001) | 7.49 | (3.91) | 13.08 | |
| NX | Quanex Building Products | 0.19 | 9 per month | 2.40 | 0.11 | 6.18 | (4.72) | 14.57 | |
| CODI | Compass Diversified Holdings | (0.16) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.89 | (6.87) | 35.68 |
Other Forecasting Options for Insteel Industries
For every potential investor in Insteel, whether a beginner or expert, Insteel Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Insteel Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Insteel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Insteel Industries' price trends.Insteel Industries Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Insteel Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Insteel Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Insteel Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Insteel Industries Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Insteel Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Insteel Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Insteel Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Insteel Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0357 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 33.59 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 33.41 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 1.22 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.53) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 52.45 |
Insteel Industries Risk Indicators
The analysis of Insteel Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Insteel Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting insteel stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.33 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.86 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.86 | |||
| Variance | 3.47 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.99 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.47 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.29) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Insteel Industries
The number of cover stories for Insteel Industries depends on current market conditions and Insteel Industries' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Insteel Industries is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Insteel Industries' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Insteel Industries Short Properties
Insteel Industries' future price predictability will typically decrease when Insteel Industries' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Insteel Industries often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Insteel Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Insteel Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 19.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 38.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Insteel Industries to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Insteel Stock, please use our How to Invest in Insteel Industries guide.You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Is Building Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Insteel Industries. If investors know Insteel will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Insteel Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 6.033 | Dividend Share 0.12 | Earnings Share 2.43 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.233 |
The market value of Insteel Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Insteel that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Insteel Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Insteel Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Insteel Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Insteel Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Insteel Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Insteel Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Insteel Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.