Insteel Industries Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| IIIN Stock | USD 36.61 0.48 1.33% |
Insteel Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Insteel Industries' share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Insteel Industries hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Insteel Industries from the perspective of Insteel Industries response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Insteel Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 36.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.32. Insteel Industries after-hype prediction price | USD 37.02 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Insteel Industries to cross-verify your projections. Insteel Industries Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Insteel price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Insteel using various technical indicators. When you analyze Insteel charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Insteel Industries Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Insteel Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 36.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50, mean absolute percentage error of 0.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.32.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Insteel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Insteel Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Insteel Industries Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Insteel Industries | Insteel Industries Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Insteel Industries Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Insteel Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Insteel Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 34.73 and 38.77, respectively. We have considered Insteel Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Insteel Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Insteel Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0586 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4969 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0153 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 29.32 |
Predictive Modules for Insteel Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Insteel Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Insteel Industries After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Insteel Industries at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Insteel Industries or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Insteel Industries, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Insteel Industries Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Insteel Industries' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Insteel Industries' historical news coverage. Insteel Industries' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 34.99 and 39.05, respectively. We have considered Insteel Industries' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Insteel Industries is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Insteel Industries is based on 3 months time horizon.
Insteel Industries Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Insteel Industries is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Insteel Industries backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Insteel Industries, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.27 | 2.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
36.61 | 37.02 | 0.46 |
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Insteel Industries Hype Timeline
Insteel Industries is currently traded for 36.61. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Insteel is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 37.02 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.46%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.27%. The volatility of related hype on Insteel Industries is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 36.61. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 647.71 M. Net Income was 41.02 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 101.97 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Insteel Industries to cross-verify your projections.Insteel Industries Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Insteel Industries' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Insteel Industries' future price movements. Getting to know how Insteel Industries' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Insteel Industries may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NWPX | Northwest Pipe | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.12 | 0.18 | 3.60 | (2.32) | 7.32 | |
| RYI | Ryerson Holding Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.74 | 0.24 | 4.22 | (3.14) | 11.34 | |
| SNCY | Sun Country Airlines | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.29 | 0.29 | 6.32 | (2.69) | 12.98 | |
| HY | Hyster Yale Materials Handling | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.46 | 0.06 | 5.10 | (4.68) | 20.43 | |
| HTLD | Heartland Express | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.21 | 0.24 | 5.90 | (2.62) | 10.25 | |
| ADSE | Ads Tec Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.94 | (0.01) | 5.22 | (4.65) | 18.67 | |
| ASPN | Aspen Aerogels | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.25 | (6.12) | 18.76 | |
| BXC | BlueLinx Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.02 | 0.13 | 7.62 | (3.67) | 13.08 | |
| NX | Quanex Building Products | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.81 | 0.26 | 6.18 | (2.84) | 14.57 | |
| CODI | Compass Diversified Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.44 | 0.05 | 9.07 | (6.32) | 35.68 |
Other Forecasting Options for Insteel Industries
For every potential investor in Insteel, whether a beginner or expert, Insteel Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Insteel Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Insteel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Insteel Industries' price trends.Insteel Industries Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Insteel Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Insteel Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Insteel Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Insteel Industries Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Insteel Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Insteel Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Insteel Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Insteel Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 3179.86 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.5783 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 36.6 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 36.6 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.25 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.48 |
Insteel Industries Risk Indicators
The analysis of Insteel Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Insteel Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting insteel stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.49 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.81 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.02 | |||
| Variance | 4.09 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.28 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.27 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.56) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Insteel Industries
The number of cover stories for Insteel Industries depends on current market conditions and Insteel Industries' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Insteel Industries is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Insteel Industries' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Insteel Industries Short Properties
Insteel Industries' future price predictability will typically decrease when Insteel Industries' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Insteel Industries often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Insteel Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Insteel Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 19.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 38.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Insteel Industries to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Insteel Stock, please use our How to Invest in Insteel Industries guide.You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Will Building Products sector continue expanding? Could Insteel diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Insteel Industries. Market participants price Insteel higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Insteel Industries data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Insteel Industries's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Insteel's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Insteel Industries' intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Insteel Industries' trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Insteel Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Insteel Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Insteel Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.