James Hardie Stock Forward View
| JHX Stock | USD 23.03 0.04 0.17% |
James Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of James Hardie's share price is at 58. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling James Hardie, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.59) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.1505 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.1111 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.1974 | Wall Street Target Price 27.6357 |
Using James Hardie hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of James Hardie Industries from the perspective of James Hardie response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards James Hardie using James Hardie's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards James using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of James Hardie's stock price.
James Hardie Short Interest
An investor who is long James Hardie may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about James Hardie and may potentially protect profits, hedge James Hardie with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 22.7716 | Short Percent 0.0889 | Short Ratio 2.17 | Shares Short Prior Month 15.5 M | 50 Day MA 21.128 |
James Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of James Hardie Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 21.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.17.James Hardie Industries Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to James Hardie's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in James. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding James can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around James Hardie Industries. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of James Hardie's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about James Hardie.
James Hardie Implied Volatility | 0.78 |
James Hardie's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of James Hardie Industries stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if James Hardie's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that James Hardie stock will not fluctuate a lot when James Hardie's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of James Hardie Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 21.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.17. James Hardie after-hype prediction price | USD 0.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of James Hardie to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current James contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that James Hardie Industries will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0488% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With James Hardie trading at USD 23.03, that is roughly USD 0.0112 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating James Hardie's daily price movement you should consider acquiring James Hardie Industries options at the current volatility level of 0.78%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 James Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast James Hardie's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in James Hardie's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for James Hardie stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current James Hardie's open interest, investors have to compare it to James Hardie's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of James Hardie is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in James. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
James Hardie Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine James price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for James using various technical indicators. When you analyze James charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the James Hardie's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2001-03-31 | Previous Quarter 391.6 M | Current Value 587 M | Quarterly Volatility 129.3 M |
James Hardie Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of James Hardie Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 21.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31, mean absolute percentage error of 0.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.17.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict James Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that James Hardie's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
James Hardie Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest James Hardie | James Hardie Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
James Hardie Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting James Hardie's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. James Hardie's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.96 and 23.79, respectively. We have considered James Hardie's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of James Hardie stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent James Hardie stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.2939 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3142 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0153 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 19.1658 |
Predictive Modules for James Hardie
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as James Hardie Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.James Hardie After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of James Hardie at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in James Hardie or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of James Hardie, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
James Hardie Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting James Hardie's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on James Hardie's historical news coverage. James Hardie's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 2.43, respectively. We have considered James Hardie's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
James Hardie is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of James Hardie Industries is based on 3 months time horizon.
James Hardie Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as James Hardie is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading James Hardie backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with James Hardie, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 2.42 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 11 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
23.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
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James Hardie Hype Timeline
On the 2nd of February James Hardie Industries is traded for 23.03. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.12. James is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.25%. %. The volatility of related hype on James Hardie is about 508.4%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 23.15. About 36.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of James Hardie was currently reported as 10.92. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.53. James Hardie Industries last dividend was issued on the 26th of May 2022. The entity had 5:1 split on the 22nd of September 2015. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of James Hardie to cross-verify your projections.James Hardie Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to James Hardie's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict James Hardie's future price movements. Getting to know how James Hardie's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how James Hardie may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RGLD | Royal Gold | 6.07 | 11 per month | 2.13 | 0.24 | 4.51 | (3.06) | 9.64 | |
| CX | Cemex SAB de | 0.12 | 10 per month | 1.23 | 0.20 | 3.44 | (2.13) | 13.23 | |
| PAAS | Pan American Silver | (12.92) | 24 per month | 3.02 | 0.19 | 7.44 | (4.28) | 16.85 | |
| EXP | Eagle Materials | 5.80 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 3.89 | (3.07) | 9.39 | |
| AGI | Alamos Gold | (0.46) | 8 per month | 3.38 | 0.09 | 5.03 | (4.78) | 12.47 | |
| SUZ | Suzano Papel e | (0.01) | 8 per month | 1.13 | 0.03 | 1.99 | (1.79) | 9.66 | |
| ALB | Albemarle Corp | 0.83 | 8 per month | 2.87 | 0.26 | 6.48 | (5.81) | 14.41 | |
| SQM | Sociedad Quimica y | 1.21 | 11 per month | 2.04 | 0.28 | 6.23 | (4.09) | 13.35 | |
| RPM | RPM International | 4.20 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.54 | (2.53) | 6.87 | |
| HMY | Harmony Gold Mining | (0.08) | 10 per month | 3.70 | 0.11 | 6.39 | (5.83) | 15.03 |
Other Forecasting Options for James Hardie
For every potential investor in James, whether a beginner or expert, James Hardie's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. James Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in James. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying James Hardie's price trends.James Hardie Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with James Hardie stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of James Hardie could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing James Hardie by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
James Hardie Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how James Hardie stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading James Hardie shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying James Hardie stock market strength indicators, traders can identify James Hardie Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
James Hardie Risk Indicators
The analysis of James Hardie's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in James Hardie's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting james stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.71 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.43 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.47 | |||
| Variance | 6.08 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.62 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.9 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.76) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for James Hardie
The number of cover stories for James Hardie depends on current market conditions and James Hardie's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that James Hardie is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about James Hardie's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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James Hardie Short Properties
James Hardie's future price predictability will typically decrease when James Hardie's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of James Hardie Industries often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential James Hardie's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. James Hardie's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 432.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 562.7 M |
Additional Tools for James Stock Analysis
When running James Hardie's price analysis, check to measure James Hardie's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy James Hardie is operating at the current time. Most of James Hardie's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of James Hardie's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move James Hardie's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of James Hardie to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.