Jumia Technologies Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| JMIA Stock | USD 12.77 0.12 0.93% |
Jumia Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Jumia Technologies stock prices and determine the direction of Jumia Technologies AG's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Jumia Technologies' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, The value of RSI of Jumia Technologies' share price is at 50. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Jumia Technologies, making its price go up or down. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year (0.25) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.17) | Wall Street Target Price 11.3001 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.251 |
Using Jumia Technologies hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Jumia Technologies AG from the perspective of Jumia Technologies response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Jumia Technologies using Jumia Technologies' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Jumia using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Jumia Technologies' stock price.
Jumia Technologies Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Jumia Technologies' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Jumia. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Jumia Technologies stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 5.6189 | Short Percent 0.0375 | Short Ratio 1.7 | Shares Short Prior Month 6 M | 50 Day MA 11.0898 |
Jumia Relative Strength Index
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Jumia Technologies AG on the next trading day is expected to be 12.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.59.Jumia Technologies Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Jumia Technologies' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Jumia. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Jumia can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Jumia Technologies AG. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Jumia Technologies' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Jumia Technologies.
Jumia Technologies Implied Volatility | 1.06 |
Jumia Technologies' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Jumia Technologies AG stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Jumia Technologies' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Jumia Technologies stock will not fluctuate a lot when Jumia Technologies' options are near their expiration.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Jumia Technologies AG on the next trading day is expected to be 12.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.59. Jumia Technologies after-hype prediction price | USD 12.66 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Jumia Technologies to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Jumia contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Jumia Technologies AG will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0663% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Jumia Technologies trading at USD 12.77, that is roughly USD 0.00846 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Jumia Technologies' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Jumia Technologies AG options at the current volatility level of 1.06%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Jumia Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Jumia Technologies' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Jumia Technologies' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Jumia Technologies stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Jumia Technologies' open interest, investors have to compare it to Jumia Technologies' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Jumia Technologies is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Jumia. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Jumia Technologies Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Jumia price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Jumia using various technical indicators. When you analyze Jumia charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Jumia Technologies Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Jumia Technologies AG on the next trading day is expected to be 12.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52, mean absolute percentage error of 0.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.59.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Jumia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Jumia Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Jumia Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Jumia Technologies | Jumia Technologies Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Jumia Technologies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Jumia Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Jumia Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.16 and 16.24, respectively. We have considered Jumia Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Jumia Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Jumia Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.1915 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5179 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0434 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.5945 |
Predictive Modules for Jumia Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Jumia Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Jumia Technologies After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Jumia Technologies at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Jumia Technologies or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Jumia Technologies, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Jumia Technologies Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Jumia Technologies' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Jumia Technologies' historical news coverage. Jumia Technologies' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.62 and 16.70, respectively. We have considered Jumia Technologies' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Jumia Technologies is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Jumia Technologies is based on 3 months time horizon.
Jumia Technologies Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Jumia Technologies is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Jumia Technologies backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Jumia Technologies, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 4.04 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
12.77 | 12.66 | 0.86 |
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Jumia Technologies Hype Timeline
Jumia Technologies is currently traded for 12.77. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Jumia is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 12.66. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.86%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.22%. The volatility of related hype on Jumia Technologies is about 21263.16%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.77. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.67. Jumia Technologies had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Jumia Technologies to cross-verify your projections.Jumia Technologies Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Jumia Technologies' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Jumia Technologies' future price movements. Getting to know how Jumia Technologies' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Jumia Technologies may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BBW | Build A Bear Workshop | 1.23 | 11 per month | 3.79 | 0.03 | 4.68 | (4.37) | 25.04 | |
| YSG | Yatsen Holding | (0.30) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 7.79 | (7.99) | 38.70 | |
| OLPX | Olaplex Holdings | (0.1) | 12 per month | 3.48 | 0.1 | 7.21 | (6.31) | 27.71 | |
| HEPS | D MARKET Electronic Services | (0.01) | 9 per month | 4.86 | 0.03 | 3.23 | (4.94) | 61.70 | |
| HZO | MarineMax | (0.52) | 9 per month | 2.78 | 0.02 | 6.76 | (4.50) | 16.01 | |
| LQDT | Liquidity Services | (0.21) | 4 per month | 1.57 | 0.14 | 3.68 | (2.98) | 16.86 | |
| ZKH | ZKH Group Limited | 0.05 | 6 per month | 2.80 | 0.07 | 6.38 | (3.63) | 25.66 | |
| CARS | Cars Inc | 0.05 | 10 per month | 1.89 | 0.06 | 3.99 | (3.44) | 10.98 | |
| SFIX | Stitch Fix | 0.18 | 9 per month | 3.08 | 0.09 | 6.80 | (5.27) | 16.99 | |
| CANG | Cango Inc | (0.18) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 10.83 | (7.64) | 25.75 |
Other Forecasting Options for Jumia Technologies
For every potential investor in Jumia, whether a beginner or expert, Jumia Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Jumia Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Jumia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Jumia Technologies' price trends.Jumia Technologies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Jumia Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Jumia Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Jumia Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Jumia Technologies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Jumia Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Jumia Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Jumia Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Jumia Technologies AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 12.77 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 12.77 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.06) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.12) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 50.78 |
Jumia Technologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of Jumia Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Jumia Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting jumia stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.22 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.57 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.99 | |||
| Variance | 15.92 | |||
| Downside Variance | 14.48 | |||
| Semi Variance | 12.77 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.47) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Jumia Technologies
The number of cover stories for Jumia Technologies depends on current market conditions and Jumia Technologies' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Jumia Technologies is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Jumia Technologies' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Jumia Technologies Short Properties
Jumia Technologies' future price predictability will typically decrease when Jumia Technologies' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Jumia Technologies AG often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Jumia Technologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Jumia Technologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 61.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 133.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Jumia Technologies to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Is Broadline Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Jumia Technologies. If investors know Jumia will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Jumia Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.67) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.251 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Jumia Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Jumia that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Jumia Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Jumia Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Jumia Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Jumia Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Jumia Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Jumia Technologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Jumia Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.