Navient SR Stock Forward View
| JSM Stock | USD 19.66 0.01 0.05% |
Navient Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Navient SR's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Navient SR's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Navient SR fundamentals over time.
As of now, The value of relative strength index of Navient SR's share price is at 55. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Navient SR, making its price go up or down. Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Navient SR hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Navient SR from the perspective of Navient SR response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Navient SR on the next trading day is expected to be 19.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.54. Navient SR after-hype prediction price | USD 19.66 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Navient SR to cross-verify your projections. Navient SR Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Navient price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Navient using various technical indicators. When you analyze Navient charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Navient SR Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Navient SR's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2002-03-31 | Previous Quarter 1.9 B | Current Value 2.1 B | Quarterly Volatility 979.2 B |
Navient SR Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Navient SR on the next trading day is expected to be 19.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.54.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Navient Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Navient SR's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Navient SR Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Navient SR | Navient SR Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Navient SR Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Navient SR's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Navient SR's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.16 and 20.51, respectively. We have considered Navient SR's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Navient SR stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Navient SR stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.5909 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1538 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0079 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.5354 |
Predictive Modules for Navient SR
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Navient SR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Navient SR's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Navient SR After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Navient SR at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Navient SR or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Navient SR, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Navient SR Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Navient SR's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Navient SR's historical news coverage. Navient SR's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.99 and 20.33, respectively. We have considered Navient SR's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Navient SR is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Navient SR is based on 3 months time horizon.
Navient SR Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Navient SR is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Navient SR backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Navient SR, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 0.68 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 7 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
19.66 | 19.66 | 0.00 |
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Navient SR Hype Timeline
On the 3rd of February Navient SR is traded for 19.66. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.05. Navient is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.12%. %. The volatility of related hype on Navient SR is about 163.07%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.71. The company last dividend was issued on the 16th of March 2026. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Navient SR to cross-verify your projections.Navient SR Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Navient SR's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Navient SR's future price movements. Getting to know how Navient SR's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Navient SR may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NNI | Nelnet Inc | 2.77 | 7 per month | 1.36 | (0.02) | 2.43 | (2.15) | 6.95 | |
| CACC | Credit Acceptance | 3.52 | 8 per month | 2.91 | (0.01) | 4.11 | (5.96) | 12.77 | |
| SLM | SLM Corp | (0.68) | 15 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 3.45 | (3.17) | 20.19 | |
| RJF | Raymond James Financial | (1.47) | 11 per month | 1.33 | 0.02 | 2.22 | (2.20) | 5.52 | |
| UBSI | United Bankshares | 0.14 | 10 per month | 0.99 | 0.15 | 3.05 | (1.94) | 8.75 | |
| VIRT | Virtu Financial | 0.25 | 17 per month | 1.30 | 0.15 | 2.81 | (2.00) | 6.62 | |
| RLI | RLI Corp | (0.18) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.38 | (2.34) | 6.59 | |
| AVAL | Grupo Aval | (0.02) | 9 per month | 1.81 | 0.12 | 4.40 | (4.15) | 13.58 | |
| MAIN | Main Street Capital | (0.18) | 31 per month | 0.97 | 0.09 | 2.60 | (2.07) | 5.67 | |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | 0.02 | 12 per month | 1.03 | 0.07 | 2.71 | (1.78) | 6.79 |
Other Forecasting Options for Navient SR
For every potential investor in Navient, whether a beginner or expert, Navient SR's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Navient Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Navient. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Navient SR's price trends.Navient SR Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Navient SR stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Navient SR could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Navient SR by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Navient SR Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Navient SR stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Navient SR shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Navient SR stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Navient SR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Navient SR Risk Indicators
The analysis of Navient SR's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Navient SR's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting navient stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5306 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6859 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7136 | |||
| Variance | 0.5092 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.6035 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4704 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.57) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Navient SR
The number of cover stories for Navient SR depends on current market conditions and Navient SR's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Navient SR is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Navient SR's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Navient SR to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Navient Stock, please use our How to Invest in Navient SR guide.You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Will Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sector continue expanding? Could Navient diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Navient SR. Expected growth trajectory for Navient significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Navient SR data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Dividend Share 0.64 |
Investors evaluate Navient SR using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Navient SR's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Navient SR's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Navient SR's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Navient SR represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Navient SR's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.