Marriott International Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| MAR Stock | USD 359.94 6.05 1.71% |
Marriott Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Marriott International's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Marriott International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Marriott International from the perspective of Marriott International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Marriott International on the next trading day is expected to be 356.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.71 and the sum of the absolute errors of 278.12. Marriott International after-hype prediction price | USD 359.09 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marriott International to cross-verify your projections. Marriott International Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Marriott price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Marriott using various technical indicators. When you analyze Marriott charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Marriott International Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 18th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Marriott International on the next trading day is expected to be 356.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.71, mean absolute percentage error of 42.31, and the sum of the absolute errors of 278.12.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Marriott Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Marriott International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Marriott International Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Marriott International | Marriott International Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Marriott International Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Marriott International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Marriott International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 355.04 and 358.79, respectively. We have considered Marriott International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Marriott International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Marriott International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.1797 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.9024 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.7139 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0148 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 278.12 |
Predictive Modules for Marriott International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marriott International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Marriott International After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Marriott International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Marriott International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Marriott International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Marriott International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Marriott International's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Marriott International's historical news coverage. Marriott International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 357.21 and 360.97, respectively. We have considered Marriott International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Marriott International is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Marriott International is based on 3 months time horizon.
Marriott International Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Marriott International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Marriott International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Marriott International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.41 | 1.87 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
359.94 | 359.09 | 0.01 |
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Marriott International Hype Timeline
On the 17th of February 2026 Marriott International is traded for 359.94. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.42. Marriott is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 359.09. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.41%. The volatility of related hype on Marriott International is about 181.03%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 360.36. About 18.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.14. Marriott International recorded earning per share (EPS) of 9.52. The entity last dividend was issued on the 26th of February 2026. The firm had 1061:1000 split on the 22nd of November 2011. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marriott International to cross-verify your projections.Marriott International Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Marriott International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Marriott International's future price movements. Getting to know how Marriott International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Marriott International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HLT | Hilton Worldwide Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.92 | 0.17 | 2.63 | (2.34) | 7.52 | |
| RCL | Royal Caribbean Cruises | (1.35) | 7 per month | 2.05 | 0.09 | 6.28 | (3.90) | 24.81 | |
| ABNB | Airbnb Inc | (0.50) | 6 per month | 2.17 | (0.01) | 2.77 | (3.00) | 10.66 | |
| RACE | Ferrari NV | 1.84 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.38 | (2.82) | 11.16 | |
| ORLY | OReilly Automotive | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 1.92 | (2.49) | 7.73 | |
| CVNA | Carvana Co | 11.01 | 7 per month | 4.15 | 0.03 | 6.14 | (5.47) | 26.23 | |
| GM | General Motors | (0.67) | 5 per month | 1.53 | 0.08 | 3.93 | (3.47) | 12.98 | |
| AZO | AutoZone | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.51 | (3.01) | 9.68 | |
| IHG | InterContinental Hotels Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.10 | 0.14 | 3.15 | (2.04) | 8.23 | |
| ROST | Ross Stores | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.44 | 0.22 | 1.97 | (1.02) | 11.17 |
Other Forecasting Options for Marriott International
For every potential investor in Marriott, whether a beginner or expert, Marriott International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Marriott Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Marriott. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Marriott International's price trends.Marriott International Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Marriott International stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Marriott International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Marriott International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Marriott International Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Marriott International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Marriott International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Marriott International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Marriott International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 41258.52 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.8755 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 358.29 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 358.84 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 4.67 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 6.05 |
Marriott International Risk Indicators
The analysis of Marriott International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Marriott International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting marriott stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.33 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9119 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.87 | |||
| Variance | 3.5 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.76 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8316 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.61) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Marriott International
The number of cover stories for Marriott International depends on current market conditions and Marriott International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Marriott International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Marriott International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Marriott International Short Properties
Marriott International's future price predictability will typically decrease when Marriott International's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Marriott International often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Marriott International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Marriott International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 269.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 358 M |
Additional Tools for Marriott Stock Analysis
When running Marriott International's price analysis, check to measure Marriott International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Marriott International is operating at the current time. Most of Marriott International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Marriott International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Marriott International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Marriott International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.