MI Homes Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MHO Stock | USD 169.14 8.55 5.32% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MI Homes on the next trading day is expected to be 169.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.81 and the sum of the absolute errors of 171.57. MHO Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although MI Homes' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of MI Homes' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of MI Homes fundamentals over time.
MHO |
MI Homes Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MI Homes on the next trading day is expected to be 169.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.81, mean absolute percentage error of 14.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 171.57.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MHO Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MI Homes' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MI Homes Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MI Homes | MI Homes Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
MI Homes Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MI Homes' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MI Homes' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 166.87 and 171.41, respectively. We have considered MI Homes' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MI Homes stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MI Homes stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.7509 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1602 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.8126 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0173 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 171.57 |
Predictive Modules for MI Homes
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MI Homes. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for MI Homes
For every potential investor in MHO, whether a beginner or expert, MI Homes' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MHO Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MHO. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MI Homes' price trends.MI Homes Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MI Homes stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MI Homes could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MI Homes by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MI Homes Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of MI Homes' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of MI Homes' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
MI Homes Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MI Homes stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MI Homes shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MI Homes stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MI Homes entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 19626.18 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.038882 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.05 | |||
| Day Median Price | 168.12 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 168.46 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 5.3 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 8.55 |
MI Homes Risk Indicators
The analysis of MI Homes' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MI Homes' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mho stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.39 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.25 | |||
| Variance | 5.08 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.98 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.69 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.62) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with MI Homes
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if MI Homes position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in MI Homes will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with MHO Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to MI Homes could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace MI Homes when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back MI Homes - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling MI Homes to buy it.
The correlation of MI Homes is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as MI Homes moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if MI Homes moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for MI Homes can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MI Homes to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in MHO Stock, please use our How to Invest in MI Homes guide.You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
Is Household Durables space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MI Homes. If investors know MHO will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about MI Homes listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.058 | Earnings Share 18.61 | Revenue Per Share 153.475 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.092 | Return On Assets 0.0973 |
The market value of MI Homes is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of MHO that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of MI Homes' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is MI Homes' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because MI Homes' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect MI Homes' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between MI Homes' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if MI Homes is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MI Homes' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.