3M Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MMM Stock | USD 127.32 0.52 0.41% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of 3M Company on the next trading day is expected to be 125.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 95.36. 3M Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although 3M's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of 3M's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of 3M fundamentals over time.
3M |
Open Interest Against 2024-11-22 3M Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast 3M's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in 3M's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for 3M stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current 3M's open interest, investors have to compare it to 3M's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of 3M is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in 3M. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
3M Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the 3M's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1985-12-31 | Previous Quarter 10.1 B | Current Value 6 B | Quarterly Volatility 1.8 B |
3M Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 22nd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of 3M Company on the next trading day is expected to be 125.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.56, mean absolute percentage error of 4.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 95.36.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict 3M Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that 3M's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
3M Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest 3M | 3M Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
3M Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting 3M's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. 3M's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 124.55 and 127.40, respectively. We have considered 3M's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of 3M stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent 3M stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.5024 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.5633 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0119 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 95.3591 |
Predictive Modules for 3M
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as 3M Company. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for 3M
For every potential investor in 3M, whether a beginner or expert, 3M's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. 3M Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in 3M. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying 3M's price trends.3M Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with 3M stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of 3M could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing 3M by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
3M Company Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of 3M's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of 3M's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
3M Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how 3M stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading 3M shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying 3M stock market strength indicators, traders can identify 3M Company entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 34230.07 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.23) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 127.46 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 127.41 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.40) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.52) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 54.09 |
3M Risk Indicators
The analysis of 3M's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in 3M's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting 3m stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.03 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Variance | 2.03 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.55 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.48 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.12) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of 3M to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Industrial Conglomerates space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of 3M. If investors know 3M will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about 3M listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.05) | Dividend Share 4.41 | Earnings Share 9.59 | Revenue Per Share 58.972 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.004 |
The market value of 3M Company is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of 3M that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of 3M's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is 3M's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because 3M's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect 3M's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between 3M's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if 3M is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, 3M's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.