Merit Medical Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MMSI Stock | USD 83.39 0.06 0.07% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Merit Medical Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 80.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 89.13. Merit Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Merit Medical's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Merit Medical's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.04) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.939 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.7405 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.0463 | Wall Street Target Price 104 |
Using Merit Medical hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Merit Medical Systems from the perspective of Merit Medical response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Merit Medical using Merit Medical's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Merit using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Merit Medical's stock price.
Merit Medical Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Merit Medical's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Merit. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Merit Medical stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 88.5677 | Short Percent 0.0945 | Short Ratio 6.85 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.8 M | 50 Day MA 86.322 |
Merit Medical Systems Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Merit Medical's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Merit. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Merit can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Merit Medical Systems. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Merit Medical Implied Volatility | 0.41 |
Merit Medical's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Merit Medical Systems stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Merit Medical's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Merit Medical stock will not fluctuate a lot when Merit Medical's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Merit Medical Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 80.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 89.13. Merit Medical after-hype prediction price | USD 83.39 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Merit Medical to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Merit contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Merit Medical Systems will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0256% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Merit Medical trading at USD 83.39, that is roughly USD 0.0214 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Merit Medical's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Merit Medical Systems options at the current volatility level of 0.41%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Merit Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Merit Medical's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Merit Medical's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Merit Medical stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Merit Medical's open interest, investors have to compare it to Merit Medical's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Merit Medical is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Merit. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Merit Medical Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Merit price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Merit using various technical indicators. When you analyze Merit charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Merit Medical Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Merit Medical's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 1990-12-31 | Previous Quarter 343.9 M | Current Value 392.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 113.8 M |
Merit Medical Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Merit Medical Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 80.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.46, mean absolute percentage error of 3.90, and the sum of the absolute errors of 89.13.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Merit Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Merit Medical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Merit Medical Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Merit Medical | Merit Medical Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Merit Medical Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Merit Medical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Merit Medical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 79.12 and 82.86, respectively. We have considered Merit Medical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Merit Medical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Merit Medical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.4715 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4612 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.017 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 89.1302 |
Predictive Modules for Merit Medical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merit Medical Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Merit Medical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Merit Medical After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Merit Medical at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Merit Medical or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Merit Medical, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Merit Medical Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Merit Medical's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Merit Medical's historical news coverage. Merit Medical's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 81.52 and 85.26, respectively. We have considered Merit Medical's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Merit Medical is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Merit Medical Systems is based on 3 months time horizon.
Merit Medical Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Merit Medical is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Merit Medical backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Merit Medical, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 1.87 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
83.39 | 83.39 | 0.00 |
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Merit Medical Hype Timeline
Merit Medical Systems is now traded for 83.39. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.02. Merit is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Merit Medical is about 332.15%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 83.41. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Merit Medical was now reported as 25.8. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.76. Merit Medical Systems had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 5:4 split on the 6th of May 2011. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Merit Medical to cross-verify your projections.Merit Medical Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Merit Medical's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Merit Medical's future price movements. Getting to know how Merit Medical's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Merit Medical may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TFX | Teleflex Incorporated | (0.42) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.48 | (3.77) | 22.60 | |
| BLCO | Bausch Lomb Corp | (0.02) | 7 per month | 1.50 | 0.06 | 3.17 | (2.93) | 10.48 | |
| STVN | Stevanato Group SpA | 0.30 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 5.70 | (4.31) | 12.60 | |
| KRYS | Krystal Biotech | 2.29 | 11 per month | 1.10 | 0.26 | 4.46 | (2.43) | 10.86 | |
| TGTX | TG Therapeutics | 1.23 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.96 | (3.85) | 11.58 | |
| GKOS | Glaukos Corp | 1.80 | 7 per month | 2.03 | 0.16 | 5.35 | (3.03) | 19.15 | |
| ALKS | Alkermes Plc | 0.36 | 9 per month | 2.11 | 0.04 | 3.82 | (3.30) | 11.41 | |
| PTCT | PTC Therapeutics | 0.76 | 12 per month | 2.13 | 0.06 | 3.88 | (3.49) | 13.88 | |
| TMDX | TransMedics Group | (1.51) | 10 per month | 2.48 | 0.06 | 5.98 | (5.18) | 21.24 | |
| BRKR | Bruker | 0.84 | 12 per month | 1.72 | 0.17 | 4.93 | (3.42) | 12.57 |
Other Forecasting Options for Merit Medical
For every potential investor in Merit, whether a beginner or expert, Merit Medical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Merit Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Merit. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Merit Medical's price trends.Merit Medical Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Merit Medical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Merit Medical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Merit Medical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Merit Medical Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Merit Medical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Merit Medical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Merit Medical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Merit Medical Systems entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 83.39 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 83.39 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.03) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.06) |
Merit Medical Risk Indicators
The analysis of Merit Medical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Merit Medical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting merit stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.8 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.83 | |||
| Variance | 3.34 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.62 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.25 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.33) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Merit Medical
The number of cover stories for Merit Medical depends on current market conditions and Merit Medical's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Merit Medical is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Merit Medical's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Merit Medical Short Properties
Merit Medical's future price predictability will typically decrease when Merit Medical's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Merit Medical Systems often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Merit Medical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Merit Medical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 59.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 376.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Merit Medical to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Is Health Care Equipment & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Merit Medical. If investors know Merit will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Merit Medical listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.04) | Earnings Share 1.95 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.13 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Merit Medical Systems is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Merit that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Merit Medical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Merit Medical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Merit Medical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Merit Medical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Merit Medical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Merit Medical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Merit Medical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.