Merit Medical Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

MMSI Stock  USD 88.14  0.42  0.47%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Merit Medical Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 86.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 67.72. Merit Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Merit Medical's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 2nd of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Merit Medical's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Merit Medical's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Merit Medical Systems, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Merit Medical's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.04)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.939
EPS Estimate Current Year
3.7338
EPS Estimate Next Year
4.0119
Wall Street Target Price
103.6
Using Merit Medical hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Merit Medical Systems from the perspective of Merit Medical response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Merit Medical using Merit Medical's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Merit using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Merit Medical's stock price.

Merit Medical Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Merit Medical's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Merit. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Merit Medical stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA
89.6922
Short Percent
0.09
Short Ratio
5.7
Shares Short Prior Month
3.2 M
50 Day MA
85.9156

Merit Medical Systems Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Merit Medical's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Merit. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Merit can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Merit Medical Systems. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Merit Medical's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Merit Medical.

Merit Medical Implied Volatility

    
  0.5  
Merit Medical's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Merit Medical Systems stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Merit Medical's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Merit Medical stock will not fluctuate a lot when Merit Medical's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Merit Medical Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 86.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 67.72.

Merit Medical after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 88.19  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Merit Medical to cross-verify your projections.
As of now, Merit Medical's Inventory Turnover is decreasing as compared to previous years. The Merit Medical's current Asset Turnover is estimated to increase to 1.05, while Payables Turnover is projected to decrease to 7.94. . The Merit Medical's current Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is estimated to increase to about 90 M, while Common Stock Shares Outstanding is projected to decrease to under 40.2 M.

Open Interest Against 2026-02-20 Merit Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Merit Medical's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Merit Medical's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Merit Medical stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Merit Medical's open interest, investors have to compare it to Merit Medical's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Merit Medical is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Merit. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Merit Medical Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Merit price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Merit using various technical indicators. When you analyze Merit charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

Merit Medical Cash Forecast

Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Merit Medical's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1990-12-31
Previous Quarter
343.9 M
Current Value
392.5 M
Quarterly Volatility
113.8 M
 
Oil Shock
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Merit Medical is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Merit Medical Systems value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Merit Medical Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Merit Medical Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 86.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.11, mean absolute percentage error of 1.83, and the sum of the absolute errors of 67.72.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Merit Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Merit Medical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Merit Medical Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Merit MedicalMerit Medical Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Merit Medical Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Merit Medical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Merit Medical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 85.49 and 88.25, respectively. We have considered Merit Medical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
88.14
86.87
Expected Value
88.25
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Merit Medical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Merit Medical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.7154
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.1102
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0131
SAESum of the absolute errors67.7233
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Merit Medical Systems. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Merit Medical. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Merit Medical

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merit Medical Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Merit Medical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
86.8188.1989.57
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
79.3397.0498.42
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
83.3586.5389.70
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
94.28103.60115.00
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Merit Medical

For every potential investor in Merit, whether a beginner or expert, Merit Medical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Merit Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Merit. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Merit Medical's price trends.

Merit Medical Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Merit Medical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Merit Medical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Merit Medical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Merit Medical Systems Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Merit Medical's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Merit Medical's current price.

Merit Medical Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Merit Medical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Merit Medical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Merit Medical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Merit Medical Systems entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Merit Medical Risk Indicators

The analysis of Merit Medical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Merit Medical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting merit stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

When determining whether Merit Medical Systems offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Merit Medical's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Merit Medical Systems Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Merit Medical Systems Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Merit Medical to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.
Is Health Care Equipment & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Merit Medical. If investors know Merit will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Merit Medical listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.04)
Earnings Share
1.95
Revenue Per Share
25.054
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.13
Return On Assets
0.0428
The market value of Merit Medical Systems is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Merit that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Merit Medical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Merit Medical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Merit Medical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Merit Medical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Merit Medical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Merit Medical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Merit Medical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.