Mid Penn Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MPB Stock | USD 31.65 0.20 0.64% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mid Penn Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 31.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.59. Mid Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Mid Penn stock prices and determine the direction of Mid Penn Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Mid Penn's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
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Mid Penn Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Mid Penn's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1997-09-30 | Previous Quarter 62.5 M | Current Value 76.8 M | Quarterly Volatility 24.4 M |
Mid Penn Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mid Penn Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 31.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51, mean absolute percentage error of 0.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.59.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mid Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mid Penn's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mid Penn Stock Forecast Pattern
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Mid Penn Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Mid Penn's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mid Penn's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29.34 and 32.90, respectively. We have considered Mid Penn's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mid Penn stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mid Penn stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.0245 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5095 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0169 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.5909 |
Predictive Modules for Mid Penn
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mid Penn Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Mid Penn
For every potential investor in Mid, whether a beginner or expert, Mid Penn's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mid Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mid. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mid Penn's price trends.View Mid Penn Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Mid Penn Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Mid Penn's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Mid Penn's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Mid Penn Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mid Penn stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mid Penn shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mid Penn stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mid Penn Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Mid Penn Risk Indicators
The analysis of Mid Penn's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mid Penn's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mid stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Variance | 3.58 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.38 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.84 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.60) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Mid Penn Bancorp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Mid Penn's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Mid Penn Bancorp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Mid Penn Bancorp Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mid Penn to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mid Penn. If investors know Mid will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Mid Penn listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.328 | Dividend Share 0.8 | Earnings Share 2.91 | Revenue Per Share 10.457 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.1 |
The market value of Mid Penn Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Mid that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Mid Penn's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Mid Penn's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Mid Penn's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Mid Penn's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Mid Penn's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Mid Penn is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Mid Penn's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.