Marathon Petroleum Stock Forward View
| MPC Stock | USD 176.19 0.45 0.26% |
Marathon Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Marathon Petroleum stock prices and determine the direction of Marathon Petroleum Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Marathon Petroleum's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength momentum indicator of Marathon Petroleum's share price is at 50. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Marathon Petroleum, making its price go up or down. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Marathon Petroleum hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Marathon Petroleum Corp from the perspective of Marathon Petroleum response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Marathon Petroleum Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 167.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 230.84. Marathon Petroleum after-hype prediction price | USD 176.09 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marathon Petroleum to cross-verify your projections. Marathon Petroleum Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Marathon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Marathon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Marathon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Marathon Petroleum Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Marathon Petroleum Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 167.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.78, mean absolute percentage error of 19.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 230.84.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Marathon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Marathon Petroleum's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Marathon Petroleum Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Marathon Petroleum | Marathon Petroleum Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Marathon Petroleum Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Marathon Petroleum's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Marathon Petroleum's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 165.08 and 169.00, respectively. We have considered Marathon Petroleum's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Marathon Petroleum stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Marathon Petroleum stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.076 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.7843 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0211 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 230.8437 |
Predictive Modules for Marathon Petroleum
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marathon Petroleum Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Marathon Petroleum After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Marathon Petroleum at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Marathon Petroleum or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Marathon Petroleum, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Marathon Petroleum Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Marathon Petroleum's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Marathon Petroleum's historical news coverage. Marathon Petroleum's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 174.13 and 178.05, respectively. We have considered Marathon Petroleum's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Marathon Petroleum is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Marathon Petroleum Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Marathon Petroleum Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Marathon Petroleum is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Marathon Petroleum backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Marathon Petroleum, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 1.96 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
176.19 | 176.09 | 0.06 |
|
Marathon Petroleum Hype Timeline
On the 1st of February Marathon Petroleum Corp is traded for 176.19. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.04. Marathon is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 176.09. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.06%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.14%. The volatility of related hype on Marathon Petroleum is about 666.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 176.15. About 76.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Marathon Petroleum was now reported as 56.8. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.98. Marathon Petroleum Corp recorded earning per share (EPS) of 9.43. The entity last dividend was issued on the 19th of November 2025. The firm had 2:1 split on the 11th of June 2015. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marathon Petroleum to cross-verify your projections.Marathon Petroleum Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Marathon Petroleum's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Marathon Petroleum's future price movements. Getting to know how Marathon Petroleum's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Marathon Petroleum may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PSX | Phillips 66 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.76 | 0.03 | 2.68 | (2.38) | 9.69 | |
| VLO | Valero Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.59 | 0.04 | 3.45 | (3.03) | 12.39 | |
| KMI | Kinder Morgan | (0.49) | 23 per month | 1.00 | 0.17 | 2.01 | (1.61) | 6.34 | |
| E | Eni SpA ADR | (0.31) | 7 per month | 1.15 | 0.1 | 2.04 | (2.26) | 6.47 | |
| EQNR | Equinor ASA ADR | (0.39) | 14 per month | 1.34 | 0.08 | 2.86 | (2.09) | 7.91 | |
| ET | Energy Transfer LP | 0.46 | 8 per month | 0.65 | 0.12 | 2.22 | (1.33) | 3.94 | |
| EOG | EOG Resources | (0.39) | 8 per month | 1.27 | 0.04 | 2.49 | (2.27) | 6.52 | |
| MPLX | MPLX LP | (1.36) | 9 per month | 0.84 | 0.13 | 1.73 | (1.73) | 4.74 | |
| EPD | Enterprise Products Partners | 0.39 | 7 per month | 0.56 | 0.19 | 1.57 | (1.33) | 3.41 | |
| SLB | Schlumberger NV | (0.85) | 8 per month | 1.42 | 0.20 | 4.46 | (3.08) | 12.49 |
Other Forecasting Options for Marathon Petroleum
For every potential investor in Marathon, whether a beginner or expert, Marathon Petroleum's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Marathon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Marathon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Marathon Petroleum's price trends.Marathon Petroleum Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Marathon Petroleum stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Marathon Petroleum could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Marathon Petroleum by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Marathon Petroleum Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Marathon Petroleum stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Marathon Petroleum shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Marathon Petroleum stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Marathon Petroleum Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Marathon Petroleum Risk Indicators
The analysis of Marathon Petroleum's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Marathon Petroleum's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting marathon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.41 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.96 | |||
| Variance | 3.83 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Marathon Petroleum
The number of cover stories for Marathon Petroleum depends on current market conditions and Marathon Petroleum's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Marathon Petroleum is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Marathon Petroleum's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Marathon Petroleum Short Properties
Marathon Petroleum's future price predictability will typically decrease when Marathon Petroleum's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Marathon Petroleum Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Marathon Petroleum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Marathon Petroleum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 341 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.2 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marathon Petroleum to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Funds Screener module to find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges.
Will Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sector continue expanding? Could Marathon diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Marathon Petroleum. Expected growth trajectory for Marathon significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Marathon Petroleum data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
The market value of Marathon Petroleum Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Marathon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Marathon Petroleum's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Marathon Petroleum's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Marathon Petroleum's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Marathon Petroleum's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Marathon Petroleum's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Marathon Petroleum represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, Marathon Petroleum's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.