Morgan Stanley Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| MS Stock | USD 181.88 2.88 1.61% |
Morgan Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength indicator of Morgan Stanley's share price is at 53. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Morgan Stanley, making its price go up or down. Momentum 53
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.207 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.8496 | EPS Estimate Current Year 11.2895 | EPS Estimate Next Year 12.2203 | Wall Street Target Price 193 |
Using Morgan Stanley hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Morgan Stanley from the perspective of Morgan Stanley response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Morgan Stanley using Morgan Stanley's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Morgan using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Morgan Stanley's stock price.
Morgan Stanley Short Interest
An investor who is long Morgan Stanley may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Morgan Stanley and may potentially protect profits, hedge Morgan Stanley with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 149.8351 | Short Percent 0.013 | Short Ratio 3.07 | Shares Short Prior Month 13.5 M | 50 Day MA 175.9038 |
Morgan Relative Strength Index
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Morgan Stanley on the next trading day is expected to be 181.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 132.56.Morgan Stanley Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Morgan Stanley's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Morgan. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Morgan can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Morgan Stanley. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Morgan Stanley's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Morgan Stanley.
Morgan Stanley Implied Volatility | 0.4 |
Morgan Stanley's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Morgan Stanley stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Morgan Stanley's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Morgan Stanley stock will not fluctuate a lot when Morgan Stanley's options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Morgan Stanley on the next trading day is expected to be 181.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 132.56. Morgan Stanley after-hype prediction price | USD 181.88 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Morgan Stanley to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Morgan contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Morgan Stanley will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.025% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Morgan Stanley trading at USD 181.88, that is roughly USD 0.0455 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Morgan Stanley's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Morgan Stanley options at the current volatility level of 0.4%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Morgan Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Morgan Stanley's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Morgan Stanley's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Morgan Stanley stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Morgan Stanley's open interest, investors have to compare it to Morgan Stanley's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Morgan Stanley is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Morgan. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Morgan Stanley Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Morgan price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Morgan using various technical indicators. When you analyze Morgan charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Morgan Stanley Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Morgan Stanley on the next trading day is expected to be 181.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.21, mean absolute percentage error of 8.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 132.56.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Morgan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Morgan Stanley's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Morgan Stanley Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Morgan Stanley | Morgan Stanley Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Morgan Stanley Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Morgan Stanley's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Morgan Stanley's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 180.36 and 183.54, respectively. We have considered Morgan Stanley's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Morgan Stanley stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Morgan Stanley stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3677 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.2093 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0126 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 132.5573 |
Predictive Modules for Morgan Stanley
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Morgan Stanley. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Morgan Stanley's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Morgan Stanley After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Morgan Stanley at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Morgan Stanley or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Morgan Stanley, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Morgan Stanley Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Morgan Stanley's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Morgan Stanley's historical news coverage. Morgan Stanley's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 180.30 and 183.46, respectively. We have considered Morgan Stanley's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Morgan Stanley is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Morgan Stanley is based on 3 months time horizon.
Morgan Stanley Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Morgan Stanley is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Morgan Stanley backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Morgan Stanley, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 1.59 | 0.27 | 0.10 | 8 Events / Month | 11 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
181.88 | 181.88 | 0.00 |
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Morgan Stanley Hype Timeline
As of January 27, 2026 Morgan Stanley is listed for 181.88. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.27, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.1. Morgan is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 112.77%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.19%. %. The volatility of related hype on Morgan Stanley is about 315.63%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 181.78. About 24.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of Morgan Stanley was now reported as 62.98. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.09. Morgan Stanley recorded earning per share (EPS) of 10.2. The entity last dividend was issued on the 30th of January 2026. The firm had 2:1 split on the 27th of January 2000. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Morgan Stanley to cross-verify your projections.Morgan Stanley Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Morgan Stanley's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Morgan Stanley's future price movements. Getting to know how Morgan Stanley's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Morgan Stanley may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Other Forecasting Options for Morgan Stanley
For every potential investor in Morgan, whether a beginner or expert, Morgan Stanley's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Morgan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Morgan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Morgan Stanley's price trends.View Morgan Stanley Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Morgan Stanley Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Morgan Stanley stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Morgan Stanley shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Morgan Stanley stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Morgan Stanley entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 91372.55 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.8045 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 180.65 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 181.06 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 2.67 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 2.88 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 53.34 |
Morgan Stanley Risk Indicators
The analysis of Morgan Stanley's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Morgan Stanley's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting morgan stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.19 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.57 | |||
| Variance | 2.46 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.96 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.44 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.34) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Morgan Stanley
The number of cover stories for Morgan Stanley depends on current market conditions and Morgan Stanley's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Morgan Stanley is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Morgan Stanley's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Morgan Stock Analysis
When running Morgan Stanley's price analysis, check to measure Morgan Stanley's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Morgan Stanley is operating at the current time. Most of Morgan Stanley's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Morgan Stanley's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Morgan Stanley's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Morgan Stanley to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.