National Bank Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| NA Stock | CAD 165.94 0.75 0.45% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of National Bank of on the next trading day is expected to be 164.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 54.78. National Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although National Bank's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of National Bank's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of National Bank fundamentals over time.
As of today, the relative strength index (RSI) of National Bank's share price is approaching 46. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling National Bank, making its price go up or down. Momentum 46
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.03) | EPS Estimate Current Year 12.0395 | EPS Estimate Next Year 13.5041 | Wall Street Target Price 170.5714 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 2.6226 |
Using National Bank hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of National Bank of from the perspective of National Bank response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of National Bank of on the next trading day is expected to be 164.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 54.78. National Bank after-hype prediction price | CAD 165.94 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
National |
National Bank Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine National price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for National using various technical indicators. When you analyze National charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
National Bank Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of National Bank of on the next trading day is expected to be 164.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88, mean absolute percentage error of 1.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 54.78.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict National Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that National Bank's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
National Bank Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest National Bank | National Bank Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
National Bank Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting National Bank's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. National Bank's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 163.29 and 164.91, respectively. We have considered National Bank's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of National Bank stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent National Bank stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.0829 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8835 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0053 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 54.7752 |
Predictive Modules for National Bank
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of National Bank's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
National Bank After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of National Bank at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in National Bank or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of National Bank, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
National Bank Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting National Bank's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on National Bank's historical news coverage. National Bank's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 165.13 and 166.75, respectively. We have considered National Bank's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
National Bank is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of National Bank is based on 3 months time horizon.
National Bank Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as National Bank is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading National Bank backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with National Bank, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 0.81 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 1 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
165.94 | 165.94 | 0.00 |
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National Bank Hype Timeline
National Bank is now traded for 165.94on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. National is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 114.08%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.12%. %. The volatility of related hype on National Bank is about 174.82%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 166.00. About 38.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of National Bank was now reported as 82.22. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.0. National Bank recorded earning per share (EPS) of 10.07. The entity last dividend was issued on the 29th of December 2025. The firm had 2:1 split on the 14th of February 2014. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be very soon. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Bank to cross-verify your projections.National Bank Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to National Bank's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict National Bank's future price movements. Getting to know how National Bank's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how National Bank may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TD-PFJ | Toronto Dominion Bank Pref | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.38 | (0.11) | 0.74 | (0.77) | 2.21 | |
| GWO | Great West Lifeco | 0.71 | 1 per month | 0.63 | 0.06 | 1.46 | (1.38) | 4.62 | |
| SLF | Sun Life Financial | 0.71 | 4 per month | 1.13 | (0.07) | 1.41 | (1.55) | 5.57 | |
| MFC | Manulife Financial Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.81 | 0.08 | 1.79 | (1.19) | 5.56 | |
| CM | Canadian Imperial Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.73 | 0.08 | 1.44 | (1.50) | 6.25 | |
| IFC | Intact Financial | 0.71 | 3 per month | 1.03 | (0.08) | 1.69 | (1.63) | 6.91 | |
| FFH | Fairfax Financial Holdings | 0.71 | 5 per month | 1.61 | (0.05) | 2.18 | (2.58) | 9.94 | |
| BNS | Bank of Nova | 0.62 | 3 per month | 0.41 | 0.15 | 1.25 | (0.83) | 4.75 | |
| POW | Power | 0.71 | 4 per month | 0.84 | 0.08 | 1.75 | (1.53) | 5.02 |
Other Forecasting Options for National Bank
For every potential investor in National, whether a beginner or expert, National Bank's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. National Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in National. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying National Bank's price trends.National Bank Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with National Bank stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of National Bank could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National Bank by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
National Bank Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how National Bank stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading National Bank shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying National Bank stock market strength indicators, traders can identify National Bank of entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 16504.24 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.32) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 167.02 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 166.66 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.45) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.75) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 46.2 |
National Bank Risk Indicators
The analysis of National Bank's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in National Bank's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting national stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6373 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5455 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7929 | |||
| Variance | 0.6287 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.4749 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2976 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.74) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for National Bank
The number of cover stories for National Bank depends on current market conditions and National Bank's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that National Bank is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about National Bank's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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National Bank Short Properties
National Bank's future price predictability will typically decrease when National Bank's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of National Bank of often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential National Bank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Bank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 382.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 33.2 B |
Other Information on Investing in National Stock
National Bank financial ratios help investors to determine whether National Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in National with respect to the benefits of owning National Bank security.