National Bank Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| NBHC Stock | USD 40.33 1.76 4.18% |
National Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast National Bank stock prices and determine the direction of National Bank Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of National Bank's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength index (RSI) of National Bank's share price is at 54. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling National Bank, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.07 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.845 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.2725 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.665 | Wall Street Target Price 45.75 |
Using National Bank hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of National Bank Holdings from the perspective of National Bank response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards National Bank using National Bank's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards National using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of National Bank's stock price.
National Bank Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in National Bank's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards National. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of National Bank stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 37.8564 | Short Percent 0.0197 | Short Ratio 1.68 | Shares Short Prior Month 703.3 K | 50 Day MA 38.7398 |
National Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of National Bank Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 40.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.57.National Bank Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to National Bank's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in National. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding National can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around National Bank Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of National Bank's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about National Bank.
National Bank Implied Volatility | 0.87 |
National Bank's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of National Bank Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if National Bank's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that National Bank stock will not fluctuate a lot when National Bank's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of National Bank Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 40.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.57. National Bank after-hype prediction price | USD 40.33 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Bank to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current National contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that National Bank Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0544% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With National Bank trading at USD 40.33, that is roughly USD 0.0219 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating National Bank's daily price movement you should consider acquiring National Bank Holdings options at the current volatility level of 0.87%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 National Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast National Bank's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in National Bank's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for National Bank stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current National Bank's open interest, investors have to compare it to National Bank's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of National Bank is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in National. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
National Bank Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine National price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for National using various technical indicators. When you analyze National charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
National Bank Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of National Bank Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 40.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44, mean absolute percentage error of 0.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.57.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict National Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that National Bank's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
National Bank Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest National Bank | National Bank Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
National Bank Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting National Bank's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. National Bank's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 38.74 and 41.99, respectively. We have considered National Bank's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of National Bank stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent National Bank stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.3324 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0702 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4429 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0115 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 26.5722 |
Predictive Modules for National Bank
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Bank Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.National Bank After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of National Bank at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in National Bank or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of National Bank, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
National Bank Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting National Bank's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on National Bank's historical news coverage. National Bank's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 38.72 and 41.94, respectively. We have considered National Bank's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
National Bank is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of National Bank Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
National Bank Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as National Bank is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading National Bank backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with National Bank, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 1.63 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 18 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 18 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
40.33 | 40.33 | 0.00 |
|
National Bank Hype Timeline
National Bank Holdings is now traded for 40.33. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. National is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.17%. %. The volatility of related hype on National Bank is about 1791.21%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 40.35. About 95.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.11. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. National Bank Holdings has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.9. The entity last dividend was issued on the 28th of November 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 18 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Bank to cross-verify your projections.National Bank Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to National Bank's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict National Bank's future price movements. Getting to know how National Bank's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how National Bank may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| QCRH | QCR Holdings | (0.44) | 7 per month | 1.06 | 0.16 | 3.55 | (1.74) | 7.77 | |
| STBA | ST Bancorp | 0.85 | 6 per month | 1.36 | 0.10 | 2.62 | (2.81) | 6.81 | |
| HOPE | Hope Bancorp | 1.32 | 22 per month | 1.13 | 0.06 | 3.37 | (1.97) | 7.99 | |
| TCBK | TriCo Bancshares | 0.04 | 7 per month | 1.01 | 0.13 | 3.41 | (1.67) | 5.90 | |
| SRCE | 1st Source | (0.03) | 5 per month | 1.01 | 0.08 | 2.95 | (2.08) | 6.47 | |
| BY | Byline Bancorp | 0.11 | 8 per month | 1.04 | 0.1 | 2.82 | (1.88) | 9.25 | |
| LKFN | Lakeland Financial | (0.14) | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.03 | (2.49) | 7.97 | |
| MBIN | Merchants Bancorp | (0.33) | 13 per month | 1.76 | 0.05 | 3.89 | (2.97) | 8.29 | |
| STEL | Stellar Bancorp | (0.14) | 19 per month | 0.98 | 0.04 | 2.20 | (1.75) | 6.09 | |
| WAFD | Washington Federal | (0.33) | 23 per month | 1.48 | 0.05 | 3.19 | (2.74) | 7.68 |
Other Forecasting Options for National Bank
For every potential investor in National, whether a beginner or expert, National Bank's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. National Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in National. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying National Bank's price trends.National Bank Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with National Bank stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of National Bank could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National Bank by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
National Bank Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how National Bank stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading National Bank shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying National Bank stock market strength indicators, traders can identify National Bank Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
National Bank Risk Indicators
The analysis of National Bank's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in National Bank's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting national stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.31 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Variance | 2.74 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.34 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.72 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.24) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for National Bank
The number of cover stories for National Bank depends on current market conditions and National Bank's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that National Bank is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about National Bank's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
National Bank Short Properties
National Bank's future price predictability will typically decrease when National Bank's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of National Bank Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential National Bank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Bank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 38.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 655.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Bank to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National Bank. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National Bank listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.07 | Dividend Share 1.2 | Earnings Share 3.15 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.061 |
The market value of National Bank Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National Bank's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National Bank's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National Bank's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National Bank's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National Bank's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if National Bank is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National Bank's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.