NACCO Industries Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| NC Stock | USD 32.29 0.11 0.34% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of NACCO Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 30.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.03. NACCO Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast NACCO Industries stock prices and determine the direction of NACCO Industries's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of NACCO Industries' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
NACCO |
NACCO Industries Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the NACCO Industries' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1985-12-31 | Previous Quarter 69.1 M | Current Value 63.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 73.1 M |
NACCO Industries Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of NACCO Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 30.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75, mean absolute percentage error of 0.98, and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.03.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NACCO Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NACCO Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
NACCO Industries Stock Forecast Pattern
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NACCO Industries Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting NACCO Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. NACCO Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 27.66 and 32.89, respectively. We have considered NACCO Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NACCO Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NACCO Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.0859 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7546 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0258 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 46.0327 |
Predictive Modules for NACCO Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NACCO Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NACCO Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for NACCO Industries
For every potential investor in NACCO, whether a beginner or expert, NACCO Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NACCO Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NACCO. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying NACCO Industries' price trends.NACCO Industries Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with NACCO Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of NACCO Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NACCO Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
NACCO Industries Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of NACCO Industries' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of NACCO Industries' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
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NACCO Industries Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how NACCO Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading NACCO Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying NACCO Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify NACCO Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
NACCO Industries Risk Indicators
The analysis of NACCO Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NACCO Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nacco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.88 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.82 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.64 | |||
| Variance | 6.95 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.22 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.32 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.19) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NACCO Industries to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade NACCO Stock refer to our How to Trade NACCO Stock guide.You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of NACCO Industries. If investors know NACCO will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about NACCO Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.408 | Dividend Share 0.89 | Earnings Share (2.33) | Revenue Per Share 30.255 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.325 |
The market value of NACCO Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of NACCO that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of NACCO Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is NACCO Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because NACCO Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect NACCO Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between NACCO Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if NACCO Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, NACCO Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.