Northfield Bancorp Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| NFBK Stock | USD 12.15 0.29 2.45% |
Northfield Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Northfield Bancorp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Northfield Bancorp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Northfield Bancorp fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength index (RSI) of Northfield Bancorp's share price is at 59. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Northfield Bancorp, making its price go up or down. Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.698 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.28 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.98 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.2 | Wall Street Target Price 12 |
Using Northfield Bancorp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Northfield Bancorp from the perspective of Northfield Bancorp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Northfield Bancorp using Northfield Bancorp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Northfield using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Northfield Bancorp's stock price.
Northfield Bancorp Implied Volatility | 1.23 |
Northfield Bancorp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Northfield Bancorp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Northfield Bancorp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Northfield Bancorp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Northfield Bancorp's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Northfield Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 12.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.95. Northfield Bancorp after-hype prediction price | USD 12.15 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Northfield contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Northfield Bancorp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0769% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Northfield Bancorp trading at USD 12.15, that is roughly USD 0.00934 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Northfield Bancorp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Northfield Bancorp options at the current volatility level of 1.23%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Northfield Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Northfield Bancorp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Northfield Bancorp's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Northfield Bancorp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Northfield Bancorp's open interest, investors have to compare it to Northfield Bancorp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Northfield Bancorp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Northfield. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Northfield Bancorp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Northfield price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Northfield using various technical indicators. When you analyze Northfield charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Northfield Bancorp Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Northfield Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 12.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.95.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Northfield Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Northfield Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Northfield Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Northfield Bancorp | Northfield Bancorp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Northfield Bancorp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Northfield Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Northfield Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.36 and 13.94, respectively. We have considered Northfield Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Northfield Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Northfield Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.0934 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0352 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1492 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0132 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.95 |
Predictive Modules for Northfield Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Northfield Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Northfield Bancorp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Northfield Bancorp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Northfield Bancorp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Northfield Bancorp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Northfield Bancorp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Northfield Bancorp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Northfield Bancorp's historical news coverage. Northfield Bancorp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.36 and 13.94, respectively. We have considered Northfield Bancorp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Northfield Bancorp is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Northfield Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Northfield Bancorp Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Northfield Bancorp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Northfield Bancorp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Northfield Bancorp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.33 | 1.79 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 8 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
12.15 | 12.15 | 0.00 |
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Northfield Bancorp Hype Timeline
Northfield Bancorp is now traded for 12.15. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. Northfield is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.33%. %. The volatility of related hype on Northfield Bancorp is about 748.95%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.23. About 13.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.71. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Northfield Bancorp has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.35. The entity last dividend was issued on the 5th of November 2025. The firm had 14029:10000 split on the 25th of January 2013. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Northfield Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.Northfield Bancorp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Northfield Bancorp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Northfield Bancorp's future price movements. Getting to know how Northfield Bancorp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Northfield Bancorp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FBIZ | First Business Financial | (0.34) | 9 per month | 1.01 | 0.09 | 3.35 | (1.91) | 8.36 | |
| KRNY | Kearny Financial Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.06 | 0.16 | 4.55 | (1.94) | 9.82 | |
| HBCP | Home Bancorp | (0.30) | 7 per month | 1.35 | 0.04 | 3.62 | (2.40) | 9.63 | |
| RRBI | Red River Bancshares | 2.68 | 6 per month | 1.30 | 0.1 | 3.40 | (2.35) | 7.97 | |
| FRBA | First Bank | 0.24 | 18 per month | 1.35 | 0.02 | 3.29 | (1.92) | 8.53 | |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp | 0.59 | 10 per month | 1.43 | 0.06 | 3.33 | (2.89) | 7.55 | |
| PGC | Peapack Gladstone Financial | (0.33) | 9 per month | 1.52 | 0.06 | 3.64 | (2.33) | 11.04 | |
| CWBC | Community West Bancshares | 0.06 | 4 per month | 0.96 | 0.09 | 2.75 | (2.00) | 7.93 | |
| CIVB | Civista Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.05 | 0.11 | 2.78 | (2.13) | 7.53 | |
| CBNK | Capital Bancorp | (0.21) | 9 per month | 1.29 | (0.01) | 2.67 | (2.02) | 8.39 |
Other Forecasting Options for Northfield Bancorp
For every potential investor in Northfield, whether a beginner or expert, Northfield Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Northfield Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Northfield. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Northfield Bancorp's price trends.Northfield Bancorp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Northfield Bancorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Northfield Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Northfield Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Northfield Bancorp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Northfield Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Northfield Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Northfield Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Northfield Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Northfield Bancorp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Northfield Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Northfield Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting northfield stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.8 | |||
| Variance | 3.25 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.34 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.7 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.68) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Northfield Bancorp
The number of cover stories for Northfield Bancorp depends on current market conditions and Northfield Bancorp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Northfield Bancorp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Northfield Bancorp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Northfield Bancorp Short Properties
Northfield Bancorp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Northfield Bancorp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Northfield Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Northfield Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Northfield Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 41.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.3 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Northfield Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Northfield Stock please use our How to buy in Northfield Stock guide.You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Northfield Bancorp. Anticipated expansion of Northfield directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Northfield Bancorp assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.698 | Dividend Share 0.52 | Earnings Share 0.97 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.304 |
Northfield Bancorp's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Northfield's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Northfield Bancorp's intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Since Northfield Bancorp's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Northfield Bancorp's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Northfield Bancorp should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Northfield Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.