National Grid Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| NGG Stock | USD 84.39 0.68 0.80% |
National Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of National Grid's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of National Grid's stock price is roughly 67. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 30th of January 2026. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling National, making its price go up or down. Momentum 67
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.12) | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.1994 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.9376 | Wall Street Target Price 80.8253 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.11) |
Using National Grid hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of National Grid PLC from the perspective of National Grid response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards National Grid using National Grid's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards National using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of National Grid's stock price.
National Grid Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in National Grid's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards National. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of National Grid stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 73.6655 | Short Percent 0.0018 | Short Ratio 2.94 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.4 M | 50 Day MA 77.6438 |
National Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of National Grid PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 84.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.68 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.93.National Grid PLC Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to National Grid's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in National. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding National can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around National Grid PLC. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of National Grid's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about National Grid.
National Grid Implied Volatility | 0.4 |
National Grid's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of National Grid PLC stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if National Grid's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that National Grid stock will not fluctuate a lot when National Grid's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of National Grid PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 84.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.68 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.93. National Grid after-hype prediction price | USD 85.07 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Grid to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current National contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that National Grid PLC will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.025% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With National Grid trading at USD 84.39, that is roughly USD 0.0211 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating National Grid's daily price movement you should consider acquiring National Grid PLC options at the current volatility level of 0.4%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 National Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast National Grid's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in National Grid's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for National Grid stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current National Grid's open interest, investors have to compare it to National Grid's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of National Grid is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in National. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
National Grid Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine National price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for National using various technical indicators. When you analyze National charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
National Grid Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of National Grid PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 84.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.68, mean absolute percentage error of 0.78, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.93.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict National Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that National Grid's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
National Grid Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest National Grid | National Grid Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
National Grid Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting National Grid's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. National Grid's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 83.73 and 85.73, respectively. We have considered National Grid's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of National Grid stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent National Grid stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.1865 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2712 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6768 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0087 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 39.93 |
Predictive Modules for National Grid
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Grid PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.National Grid After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of National Grid at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in National Grid or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of National Grid, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
National Grid Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting National Grid's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on National Grid's historical news coverage. National Grid's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 84.07 and 86.07, respectively. We have considered National Grid's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
National Grid is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of National Grid PLC is based on 3 months time horizon.
National Grid Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as National Grid is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading National Grid backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with National Grid, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
84.39 | 85.07 | 0.00 |
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National Grid Hype Timeline
On the 30th of January National Grid PLC is traded for 84.39. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.11. National is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.24%. %. The volatility of related hype on National Grid is about 214.8%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 84.50. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.64. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. National Grid PLC has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.2. The entity last dividend was issued on the 21st of November 2025. The firm had 916:1000 split on the 22nd of May 2017. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Grid to cross-verify your projections.National Grid Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to National Grid's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict National Grid's future price movements. Getting to know how National Grid's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how National Grid may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AEP | American Electric Power | (0.77) | 9 per month | 0.91 | (0.0006) | 1.73 | (1.51) | 8.71 | |
| DUK | Duke Energy | 0.48 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.24 | (1.39) | 4.59 | |
| D | Dominion Energy | 0.42 | 10 per month | 1.32 | (0.04) | 1.63 | (2.04) | 5.71 | |
| EXC | Exelon | 0.11 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.26 | (1.77) | 4.76 | |
| XEL | Xcel Energy | 1.44 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.27 | (1.64) | 5.29 | |
| SO | Southern Company | 0.38 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 1.10 | (1.81) | 4.07 | |
| ED | Consolidated Edison | 1.87 | 9 per month | 1.04 | 0.04 | 1.58 | (1.66) | 4.62 | |
| PEG | Public Service Enterprise | (0.59) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.61 | (2.04) | 5.52 | |
| ETR | Entergy | 0.85 | 9 per month | 1.22 | (0.05) | 1.70 | (2.15) | 4.90 |
Other Forecasting Options for National Grid
For every potential investor in National, whether a beginner or expert, National Grid's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. National Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in National. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying National Grid's price trends.National Grid Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with National Grid stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of National Grid could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National Grid by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
National Grid Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how National Grid stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading National Grid shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying National Grid stock market strength indicators, traders can identify National Grid PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 84.39 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 84.39 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.34) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.68) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 67.47 |
National Grid Risk Indicators
The analysis of National Grid's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in National Grid's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting national stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8097 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.757 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.0 | |||
| Variance | 1.01 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.8645 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.5731 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.91) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for National Grid
The number of cover stories for National Grid depends on current market conditions and National Grid's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that National Grid is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about National Grid's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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National Grid Short Properties
National Grid's future price predictability will typically decrease when National Grid's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of National Grid PLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential National Grid's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Grid's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 945.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6.9 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Grid to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Can Multi-Utilities industry sustain growth momentum? Does National have expansion opportunities? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National Grid. Anticipated expansion of National directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Determining accurate worth demands scrutiny of both present operating results and projected expansion capacity. Evaluating National Grid demands reviewing these metrics collectively while recognizing certain factors exert disproportionate influence.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.12) | Dividend Share 0.472 | Earnings Share 4.13 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.11) |
Investors evaluate National Grid PLC using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating National Grid's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause National Grid's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between National Grid's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding National Grid should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, National Grid's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.