National Retail Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| NNN Stock | USD 43.66 0.03 0.07% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of National Retail Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 43.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.94. National Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although National Retail's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of National Retail's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of National Retail fundamentals over time.
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National Retail Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of National Retail Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 43.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.94.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict National Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that National Retail's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
National Retail Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest National Retail | National Retail Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
National Retail Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting National Retail's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. National Retail's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 42.52 and 44.80, respectively. We have considered National Retail's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of National Retail stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent National Retail stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.9939 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0457 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3657 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0081 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21.94 |
Predictive Modules for National Retail
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Retail Prop. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for National Retail
For every potential investor in National, whether a beginner or expert, National Retail's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. National Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in National. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying National Retail's price trends.View National Retail Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
National Retail Prop Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of National Retail's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of National Retail's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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National Retail Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how National Retail stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading National Retail shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying National Retail stock market strength indicators, traders can identify National Retail Properties entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
National Retail Risk Indicators
The analysis of National Retail's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in National Retail's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting national stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7806 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Variance | 1.3 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with National Retail
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if National Retail position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in National Retail will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with National Stock
Moving against National Stock
| 0.78 | ROIC | Retail Opportunity Sell-off Trend | PairCorr |
| 0.74 | UE | Urban Edge Properties | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | IVT | Inventrust Properties | PairCorr |
| 0.63 | KIM | Kimco Realty | PairCorr |
| 0.63 | KRG | Kite Realty Group | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to National Retail could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace National Retail when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back National Retail - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling National Retail Properties to buy it.
The correlation of National Retail is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as National Retail moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if National Retail Prop moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for National Retail can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Retail to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Retail REITs space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National Retail. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National Retail listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.1) | Dividend Share 2.275 | Earnings Share 2.16 | Revenue Per Share 4.753 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.065 |
The market value of National Retail Prop is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National Retail's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National Retail's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National Retail's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National Retail's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National Retail's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if National Retail is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National Retail's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.