National Retail Stock Forward View
| NNN Stock | USD 41.67 0.45 1.09% |
National Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although National Retail's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of National Retail's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of National Retail fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of National Retail's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.04) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.4871 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.9773 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.0202 | Wall Street Target Price 44.3529 |
Using National Retail hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of National Retail Properties from the perspective of National Retail response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards National Retail using National Retail's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards National using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of National Retail's stock price.
National Retail Short Interest
An investor who is long National Retail may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about National Retail and may potentially protect profits, hedge National Retail with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 41.7205 | Short Percent 0.0382 | Short Ratio 3.56 | Shares Short Prior Month 5 M | 50 Day MA 40.761 |
National Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of National Retail Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 40.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.80.National Retail Prop Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to National Retail's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in National. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding National can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around National Retail Properties. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of National Retail's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about National Retail.
National Retail Implied Volatility | 0.55 |
National Retail's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of National Retail Properties stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if National Retail's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that National Retail stock will not fluctuate a lot when National Retail's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of National Retail Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 40.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.80. National Retail after-hype prediction price | USD 41.72 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Retail to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current National contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that National Retail Properties will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0344% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With National Retail trading at USD 41.67, that is roughly USD 0.0143 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating National Retail's daily price movement you should consider acquiring National Retail Properties options at the current volatility level of 0.55%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 National Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast National Retail's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in National Retail's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for National Retail stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current National Retail's open interest, investors have to compare it to National Retail's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of National Retail is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in National. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
National Retail Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine National price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for National using various technical indicators. When you analyze National charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
National Retail Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the National Retail's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1995-06-30 | Previous Quarter 6 M | Current Value 157.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 104 M |
National Retail Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of National Retail Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 40.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32, mean absolute percentage error of 0.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.80.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict National Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that National Retail's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
National Retail Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest National Retail | National Retail Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
National Retail Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting National Retail's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. National Retail's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 39.53 and 41.58, respectively. We have considered National Retail's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of National Retail stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent National Retail stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.3008 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3247 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0081 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 19.8038 |
Predictive Modules for National Retail
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Retail Prop. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.National Retail After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of National Retail at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in National Retail or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of National Retail, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
National Retail Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting National Retail's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on National Retail's historical news coverage. National Retail's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 40.69 and 42.75, respectively. We have considered National Retail's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
National Retail is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of National Retail Prop is based on 3 months time horizon.
National Retail Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as National Retail is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading National Retail backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with National Retail, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 1.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
41.67 | 41.72 | 0.12 |
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National Retail Hype Timeline
On the 1st of February National Retail Prop is traded for 41.67. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. National is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 41.72 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 115.73%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.12%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.06%. The volatility of related hype on National Retail is about 568.71%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 41.66. The company reported the last year's revenue of 869.27 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 396.83 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 867.81 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Retail to cross-verify your projections.National Retail Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to National Retail's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict National Retail's future price movements. Getting to know how National Retail's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how National Retail may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ADC | Agree Realty | 0.54 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 1.24 | (1.65) | 3.97 | |
| FRT | Federal Realty Investment | (0.32) | 8 per month | 0.99 | (0.03) | 1.58 | (1.64) | 4.08 | |
| REG | Regency Centers | (0.71) | 10 per month | 1.03 | (0.03) | 1.85 | (1.60) | 3.79 | |
| NTST | Netstreit Corp | (0.01) | 30 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.92 | (1.73) | 5.29 | |
| KIM | Kimco Realty | 0.03 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.69 | (1.94) | 4.64 | |
| WPC | W P Carey | (0.18) | 14 per month | 0.86 | 0.03 | 1.73 | (1.49) | 4.83 | |
| UHT | Universal Health Realty | 0.96 | 8 per month | 1.10 | 0.07 | 2.07 | (2.11) | 6.30 | |
| ESS | Essex Property Trust | (2.51) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.87 | (2.35) | 5.23 | |
| EPR | EPR Properties | 0.57 | 8 per month | 1.58 | 0 | 2.02 | (1.78) | 6.01 |
Other Forecasting Options for National Retail
For every potential investor in National, whether a beginner or expert, National Retail's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. National Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in National. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying National Retail's price trends.National Retail Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with National Retail stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of National Retail could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National Retail by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
National Retail Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how National Retail stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading National Retail shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying National Retail stock market strength indicators, traders can identify National Retail Properties entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
National Retail Risk Indicators
The analysis of National Retail's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in National Retail's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting national stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8448 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.01 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Variance | 1.08 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.16 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.02 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.85) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for National Retail
The number of cover stories for National Retail depends on current market conditions and National Retail's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that National Retail is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about National Retail's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
National Retail Short Properties
National Retail's future price predictability will typically decrease when National Retail's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of National Retail Properties often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential National Retail's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Retail's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 184 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 8.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Retail to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Will Retail REITs sector continue expanding? Could National diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National Retail. Anticipated expansion of National directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every National Retail data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.04) | Dividend Share 2.34 | Earnings Share 2.08 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.053 |
Understanding National Retail Prop requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects National's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what National Retail's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push National Retail's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between National Retail's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding National Retail should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, National Retail's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.