Norwood Financial Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| NWFL Stock | USD 30.43 1.00 3.40% |
Norwood Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Norwood Financial's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Norwood Financial's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Norwood Financial fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Norwood Financial's stock price is about 63. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Norwood, making its price go up or down. Momentum 63
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.863 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.765 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.4 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.61 | Wall Street Target Price 30 |
Using Norwood Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Norwood Financial Corp from the perspective of Norwood Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Norwood Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Norwood Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 30.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.85.Norwood Financial Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Norwood Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Norwood. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Norwood can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Norwood Financial Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Norwood Financial's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Norwood Financial.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Norwood Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 30.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.85. Norwood Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 30.62 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Norwood Financial to cross-verify your projections. Norwood Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Norwood price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Norwood using various technical indicators. When you analyze Norwood charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Norwood Financial Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Norwood Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 30.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.85.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Norwood Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Norwood Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Norwood Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Norwood Financial | Norwood Financial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Norwood Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Norwood Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Norwood Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.89 and 31.97, respectively. We have considered Norwood Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Norwood Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Norwood Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.4479 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0674 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3254 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0115 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 19.85 |
Predictive Modules for Norwood Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Norwood Financial Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Norwood Financial After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Norwood Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Norwood Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Norwood Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Norwood Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Norwood Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Norwood Financial's historical news coverage. Norwood Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 29.08 and 32.16, respectively. We have considered Norwood Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Norwood Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Norwood Financial Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Norwood Financial Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Norwood Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Norwood Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Norwood Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 1.54 | 0.19 | 0.04 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
30.43 | 30.62 | 0.62 |
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Norwood Financial Hype Timeline
Norwood Financial Corp is now traded for 30.43. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.19, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. Norwood is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 30.62 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 200.0%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.62%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.25%. The volatility of related hype on Norwood Financial is about 1033.56%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 30.39. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 136.14 M. Net Loss for the year was (160 K) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 86.17 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Norwood Financial to cross-verify your projections.Norwood Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Norwood Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Norwood Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Norwood Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Norwood Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CHMG | Chemung Financial Corp | (0.60) | 9 per month | 1.51 | 0.08 | 3.34 | (2.63) | 8.78 | |
| FDBC | Fidelity DD Bancorp | (0.90) | 8 per month | 1.63 | (0.02) | 3.52 | (2.73) | 9.91 | |
| TSBK | Timberland Bancorp | (0.32) | 6 per month | 1.05 | 0.14 | 3.45 | (1.95) | 8.74 | |
| FRST | Primis Financial Corp | 0.25 | 9 per month | 1.52 | 0.16 | 4.16 | (2.41) | 12.37 | |
| ISTR | Investar Holding Corp | 0.22 | 7 per month | 0.75 | 0.12 | 2.68 | (1.54) | 5.37 | |
| FINW | Finwise Bancorp | 0.14 | 9 per month | 1.30 | (0.02) | 2.79 | (2.19) | 7.91 | |
| WNEB | Western New England | (0.35) | 10 per month | 0.94 | 0.12 | 3.24 | (2.14) | 7.72 | |
| CZFS | Citizens Financial Services | 0.65 | 8 per month | 1.77 | 0.06 | 4.15 | (2.86) | 10.38 | |
| FUNC | First United | (0.18) | 8 per month | 1.82 | 0 | 2.92 | (2.74) | 11.47 | |
| OVLY | Oak Valley Bancorp | (0.40) | 7 per month | 0.80 | 0.11 | 2.88 | (1.49) | 6.25 |
Other Forecasting Options for Norwood Financial
For every potential investor in Norwood, whether a beginner or expert, Norwood Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Norwood Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Norwood. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Norwood Financial's price trends.Norwood Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Norwood Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Norwood Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Norwood Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Norwood Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Norwood Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Norwood Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Norwood Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Norwood Financial Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Norwood Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Norwood Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Norwood Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting norwood stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.12 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9838 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Variance | 2.16 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.32 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.9678 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.36) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Norwood Financial
The number of cover stories for Norwood Financial depends on current market conditions and Norwood Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Norwood Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Norwood Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Norwood Financial to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Norwood Financial. Anticipated expansion of Norwood directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Norwood Financial assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.863 | Dividend Share 1.25 | Earnings Share 3.01 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.39 |
Investors evaluate Norwood Financial Corp using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Norwood Financial's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Norwood Financial's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Norwood Financial's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Norwood Financial should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Norwood Financial's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.