Old Dominion Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ODFL Stock | USD 220.25 1.86 0.85% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Old Dominion Freight on the next trading day is expected to be 221.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 196.65. Old Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Old Dominion's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Old Dominion's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Old Dominion fundamentals over time.
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Old Dominion Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Old Dominion Freight on the next trading day is expected to be 221.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.33, mean absolute percentage error of 25.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 196.65.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Old Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Old Dominion's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Old Dominion Stock Forecast Pattern
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Old Dominion Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Old Dominion's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Old Dominion's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 218.79 and 223.46, respectively. We have considered Old Dominion's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Old Dominion stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Old Dominion stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.7349 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.333 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0163 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 196.6468 |
Predictive Modules for Old Dominion
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Old Dominion Freight. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Old Dominion
For every potential investor in Old, whether a beginner or expert, Old Dominion's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Old Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Old. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Old Dominion's price trends.Old Dominion Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Old Dominion stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Old Dominion could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Old Dominion by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Old Dominion Freight Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Old Dominion's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Old Dominion's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Old Dominion Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Old Dominion stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Old Dominion shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Old Dominion stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Old Dominion Freight entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Old Dominion Risk Indicators
The analysis of Old Dominion's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Old Dominion's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting old stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.62 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.25 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.35 | |||
| Variance | 5.5 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.64 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.06 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.57) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Is Cargo Ground Transportation space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Old Dominion. If investors know Old will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Old Dominion listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.07) | Dividend Share 0.98 | Earnings Share 5.73 | Revenue Per Share 27.363 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
The market value of Old Dominion Freight is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Old that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Old Dominion's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Old Dominion's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Old Dominion's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Old Dominion's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Old Dominion's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Old Dominion is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Old Dominion's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.