Old Dominion Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ODFL Stock | USD 185.51 8.95 4.60% |
Old Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Old Dominion's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Old Dominion's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Old Dominion fundamentals over time.
As of now the value of relative strength index of Old Dominion's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.11) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.0733 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.0242 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.0084 | Wall Street Target Price 195.8333 |
Using Old Dominion hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Old Dominion Freight from the perspective of Old Dominion response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Old Dominion using Old Dominion's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Old using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Old Dominion's stock price.
Old Dominion Short Interest
An investor who is long Old Dominion may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Old Dominion and may potentially protect profits, hedge Old Dominion with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 155.4601 | Short Percent 0.0911 | Short Ratio 8.14 | Shares Short Prior Month 11.1 M | 50 Day MA 168.6374 |
Old Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Old Dominion Freight on the next trading day is expected to be 185.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 185.94.Old Dominion Freight Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Old Dominion's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Old. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Old can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Old Dominion Freight. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Old Dominion's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Old Dominion.
Old Dominion Implied Volatility | 0.61 |
Old Dominion's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Old Dominion Freight stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Old Dominion's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Old Dominion stock will not fluctuate a lot when Old Dominion's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Old Dominion Freight on the next trading day is expected to be 185.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 185.94. Old Dominion after-hype prediction price | USD 186.82 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Old Dominion to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Old contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Old Dominion Freight will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0381% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Old Dominion trading at USD 185.51, that is roughly USD 0.0707 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Old Dominion's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Old Dominion Freight options at the current volatility level of 0.61%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Old Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Old Dominion's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Old Dominion's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Old Dominion stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Old Dominion's open interest, investors have to compare it to Old Dominion's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Old Dominion is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Old. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Old Dominion Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Old price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Old using various technical indicators. When you analyze Old charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Old Dominion Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 14th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Old Dominion Freight on the next trading day is expected to be 185.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.05, mean absolute percentage error of 21.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 185.94.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Old Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Old Dominion's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Old Dominion Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Old Dominion | Old Dominion Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Old Dominion Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Old Dominion's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Old Dominion's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 182.81 and 188.21, respectively. We have considered Old Dominion's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Old Dominion stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Old Dominion stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.1595 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.8767 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.0482 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0182 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 185.94 |
Predictive Modules for Old Dominion
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Old Dominion Freight. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Old Dominion After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Old Dominion at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Old Dominion or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Old Dominion, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Old Dominion Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Old Dominion's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Old Dominion's historical news coverage. Old Dominion's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 184.16 and 189.48, respectively. We have considered Old Dominion's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Old Dominion is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Old Dominion Freight is based on 3 months time horizon.
Old Dominion Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Old Dominion is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Old Dominion backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Old Dominion, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.63 | 2.70 | 1.34 | 0.03 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
185.51 | 186.82 | 0.71 |
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Old Dominion Hype Timeline
Old Dominion Freight is now traded for 185.51. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.34, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Old is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 186.82 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 127.36%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.71%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.63%. The volatility of related hype on Old Dominion is about 5192.31%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 185.54. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 5.5 B. Net Income was 1.19 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.14 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Old Dominion to cross-verify your projections.Old Dominion Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Old Dominion's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Old Dominion's future price movements. Getting to know how Old Dominion's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Old Dominion may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SHMD | SCHMID Group NV | 0.68 | 9 per month | 6.58 | 0.13 | 16.73 | (10.85) | 40.89 | |
| NVX | Novonix Ltd ADR | (0.10) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 7.92 | (7.14) | 33.61 | |
| SMHI | SEACOR Marine Holdings | 0.02 | 9 per month | 3.11 | 0.01 | 6.07 | (5.37) | 16.95 | |
| SPCE | Virgin Galactic Holdings | 0.02 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 6.72 | (8.56) | 27.80 | |
| SKYX | SKYX Platforms Corp | 0.01 | 10 per month | 4.03 | 0.1 | 11.11 | (6.80) | 33.38 | |
| ALTG | Alta Equipment Group | (0.08) | 9 per month | 2.94 | 0.09 | 7.06 | (4.75) | 15.56 | |
| POWW | Ammo Inc | (0.03) | 9 per month | 2.80 | 0.06 | 6.17 | (4.71) | 14.96 | |
| FC | Franklin Covey | (0.05) | 9 per month | 1.99 | 0.10 | 4.53 | (3.73) | 10.78 | |
| PAL | Proficient Auto Logistics | 0.04 | 8 per month | 5.27 | 0.05 | 6.89 | (5.31) | 55.51 | |
| DSX | Diana Shipping | 0.01 | 12 per month | 2.01 | 0.14 | 6.51 | (3.68) | 13.98 |
Other Forecasting Options for Old Dominion
For every potential investor in Old, whether a beginner or expert, Old Dominion's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Old Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Old. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Old Dominion's price trends.Old Dominion Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Old Dominion stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Old Dominion could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Old Dominion by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Old Dominion Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Old Dominion stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Old Dominion shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Old Dominion stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Old Dominion Freight entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 498251.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.56) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.95 | |||
| Day Median Price | 191.81 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 189.71 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (10.78) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (8.95) |
Old Dominion Risk Indicators
The analysis of Old Dominion's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Old Dominion's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting old stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.66 | |||
| Variance | 7.07 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.48 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.15 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.24) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Old Dominion
The number of cover stories for Old Dominion depends on current market conditions and Old Dominion's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Old Dominion is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Old Dominion's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Old Dominion Short Properties
Old Dominion's future price predictability will typically decrease when Old Dominion's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Old Dominion Freight often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Old Dominion's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Old Dominion's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 209.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 120.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Old Dominion to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Is Cargo Ground Transportation space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Old Dominion. Anticipated expansion of Old directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Old Dominion assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.11) | Dividend Share 1.12 | Earnings Share 4.62 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) |
Investors evaluate Old Dominion Freight using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Old Dominion's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Old Dominion's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Old Dominion's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Old Dominion should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Old Dominion's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.