Ollies Bargain Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| OLLI Stock | USD 112.50 5.79 5.43% |
Ollies Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Ollies Bargain's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 7th of February 2026 the value of rsi of Ollies Bargain's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.293 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.8686 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.4761 | Wall Street Target Price 141.6667 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.7322 |
Using Ollies Bargain hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ollies Bargain Outlet from the perspective of Ollies Bargain response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ollies Bargain using Ollies Bargain's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ollies using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ollies Bargain's stock price.
Ollies Bargain Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Ollies Bargain's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Ollies. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Ollies Bargain stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 122.2703 | Short Percent 0.0784 | Short Ratio 3.43 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.2 M | 50 Day MA 114.3952 |
Ollies Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ollies Bargain Outlet on the next trading day is expected to be 112.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.98 and the sum of the absolute errors of 120.95.Ollies Bargain Outlet Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ollies Bargain's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ollies. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ollies can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ollies Bargain Outlet. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ollies Bargain's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ollies Bargain.
Ollies Bargain Implied Volatility | 0.41 |
Ollies Bargain's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ollies Bargain Outlet stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ollies Bargain's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ollies Bargain stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ollies Bargain's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ollies Bargain Outlet on the next trading day is expected to be 112.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.98 and the sum of the absolute errors of 120.95. Ollies Bargain after-hype prediction price | USD 112.36 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ollies Bargain to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ollies contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ollies Bargain Outlet will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0256% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Ollies Bargain trading at USD 112.5, that is roughly USD 0.0288 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ollies Bargain's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ollies Bargain Outlet options at the current volatility level of 0.41%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Ollies Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Ollies Bargain's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Ollies Bargain's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Ollies Bargain stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Ollies Bargain's open interest, investors have to compare it to Ollies Bargain's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Ollies Bargain is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Ollies. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Ollies Bargain Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ollies price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ollies using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ollies charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ollies Bargain Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ollies Bargain Outlet on the next trading day is expected to be 112.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.98, mean absolute percentage error of 5.87, and the sum of the absolute errors of 120.95.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ollies Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ollies Bargain's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ollies Bargain Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ollies Bargain | Ollies Bargain Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Ollies Bargain Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ollies Bargain's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ollies Bargain's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 110.37 and 114.63, respectively. We have considered Ollies Bargain's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ollies Bargain stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ollies Bargain stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.881 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.23 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.9828 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0172 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 120.95 |
Predictive Modules for Ollies Bargain
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ollies Bargain Outlet. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ollies Bargain After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ollies Bargain at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ollies Bargain or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ollies Bargain, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ollies Bargain Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ollies Bargain's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ollies Bargain's historical news coverage. Ollies Bargain's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 110.23 and 114.49, respectively. We have considered Ollies Bargain's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ollies Bargain is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ollies Bargain Outlet is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ollies Bargain Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ollies Bargain is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ollies Bargain backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ollies Bargain, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 2.13 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
112.50 | 112.36 | 0.12 |
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Ollies Bargain Hype Timeline
Ollies Bargain Outlet is now traded for 112.50. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.07. Ollies is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 112.36. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.12%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Ollies Bargain is about 551.81%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 112.43. About 100.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Ollies Bargain was now reported as 29.86. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.08. Ollies Bargain Outlet had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ollies Bargain to cross-verify your projections.Ollies Bargain Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ollies Bargain's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ollies Bargain's future price movements. Getting to know how Ollies Bargain's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ollies Bargain may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SFM | Sprouts Farmers Market | 0.96 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 2.84 | (3.68) | 12.94 | |
| TAL | TAL Education Group | (0.34) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 3.69 | (3.83) | 23.09 | |
| INGR | Ingredion Incorporated | (0.55) | 10 per month | 1.20 | 0.01 | 2.27 | (1.58) | 5.90 | |
| LW | Lamb Weston Holdings | (0.32) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.37 | (2.72) | 30.34 | |
| CAG | ConAgra Foods | 0.21 | 6 per month | 1.35 | 0.07 | 3.38 | (2.35) | 7.17 | |
| ELF | ELF Beauty | (2.71) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 4.81 | (5.06) | 35.04 | |
| SFD | Smithfield Foods Common | (0.10) | 3 per month | 0.67 | 0.09 | 1.90 | (1.52) | 4.79 | |
| CPB | Campbells Co | (0.63) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.80 | (3.06) | 8.15 | |
| PSMT | PriceSmart | (0.05) | 7 per month | 0.83 | 0.21 | 3.65 | (1.96) | 9.74 | |
| TAP | Molson Coors Brewing | (0.33) | 8 per month | 1.33 | 0.13 | 3.45 | (2.51) | 8.40 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ollies Bargain
For every potential investor in Ollies, whether a beginner or expert, Ollies Bargain's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ollies Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ollies. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ollies Bargain's price trends.Ollies Bargain Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ollies Bargain stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ollies Bargain could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ollies Bargain by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ollies Bargain Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ollies Bargain stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ollies Bargain shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ollies Bargain stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ollies Bargain Outlet entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 56826.16 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.8867 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.05 | |||
| Day Median Price | 110.47 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 111.14 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 4.93 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 5.79 |
Ollies Bargain Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ollies Bargain's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ollies Bargain's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ollies stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.08 | |||
| Variance | 4.31 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ollies Bargain
The number of cover stories for Ollies Bargain depends on current market conditions and Ollies Bargain's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ollies Bargain is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ollies Bargain's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ollies Bargain Short Properties
Ollies Bargain's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ollies Bargain's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ollies Bargain Outlet often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ollies Bargain's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ollies Bargain's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 61.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 428.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ollies Bargain to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Financial Widgets module to easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.
Is there potential for Broadline Retail market expansion? Will Ollies introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ollies Bargain. Anticipated expansion of Ollies directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about Ollies Bargain listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.293 | Earnings Share 3.61 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.186 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Ollies Bargain Outlet is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ollies that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ollies Bargain's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ollies Bargain's true underlying value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Because Ollies Bargain's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ollies Bargain's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Ollies Bargain's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Ollies Bargain should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Ollies Bargain's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.