Old Republic Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| ORI Stock | USD 39.09 0.04 0.10% |
Old Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Old Republic's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 30th of January 2026, the relative strength indicator of Old Republic's share price is approaching 43. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Old Republic, making its price go up or down. Momentum 43
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.973 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.86 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.3 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.4833 | Wall Street Target Price 42.5 |
Using Old Republic hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Old Republic International from the perspective of Old Republic response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Old Republic using Old Republic's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Old using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Old Republic's stock price.
Old Republic Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Old Republic's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Old. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Old Republic stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 40.1587 | Short Percent 0.0304 | Short Ratio 3.41 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.5 M | 50 Day MA 43.9418 |
Old Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Old Republic International on the next trading day is expected to be 39.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.36.Old Republic Interna Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Old Republic's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Old. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Old can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Old Republic International. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Old Republic's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Old Republic.
Old Republic Implied Volatility | 0.28 |
Old Republic's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Old Republic International stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Old Republic's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Old Republic stock will not fluctuate a lot when Old Republic's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Old Republic International on the next trading day is expected to be 39.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.36. Old Republic after-hype prediction price | USD 39.09 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Old Republic to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Old contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Old Republic International will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0175% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Old Republic trading at USD 39.09, that is roughly USD 0.006841 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Old Republic's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Old Republic International options at the current volatility level of 0.28%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Old Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Old Republic's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Old Republic's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Old Republic stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Old Republic's open interest, investors have to compare it to Old Republic's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Old Republic is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Old. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Old Republic Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Old price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Old using various technical indicators. When you analyze Old charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Old Republic Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Old Republic International on the next trading day is expected to be 39.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61, mean absolute percentage error of 0.77, and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.36.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Old Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Old Republic's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Old Republic Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Old Republic | Old Republic Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Old Republic Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Old Republic's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Old Republic's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 37.31 and 40.87, respectively. We have considered Old Republic's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Old Republic stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Old Republic stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0138 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0527 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.606 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0148 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 36.36 |
Predictive Modules for Old Republic
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Old Republic Interna. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Old Republic After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Old Republic at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Old Republic or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Old Republic, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Old Republic Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Old Republic's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Old Republic's historical news coverage. Old Republic's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 37.32 and 40.86, respectively. We have considered Old Republic's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Old Republic is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Old Republic Interna is based on 3 months time horizon.
Old Republic Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Old Republic is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Old Republic backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Old Republic, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 1.78 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 25 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 25 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
39.09 | 39.09 | 0.00 |
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Old Republic Hype Timeline
On the 30th of January Old Republic Interna is traded for 39.09. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.17, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. Old is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 116.34%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.11%. %. The volatility of related hype on Old Republic is about 505.68%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 39.05. About 78.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.63. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Old Republic Interna last dividend was issued on the 2nd of January 2026. The entity had 5:4 split on the 3rd of January 2006. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 25 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Old Republic to cross-verify your projections.Old Republic Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Old Republic's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Old Republic's future price movements. Getting to know how Old Republic's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Old Republic may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CMA | Comerica Incorporated | 1.53 | 15 per month | 0.97 | 0.15 | 2.60 | (1.66) | 9.13 | |
| XP | Xp Inc | 0.58 | 31 per month | 2.83 | 0.09 | 4.64 | (4.83) | 15.10 | |
| WBS | Webster Financial | (1.24) | 26 per month | 1.08 | 0.13 | 2.80 | (1.77) | 7.21 | |
| ACGL | Arch Capital Group | (2.14) | 11 per month | 0.84 | 0.09 | 1.82 | (1.42) | 4.71 | |
| FHN | First Horizon National | (0.07) | 4 per month | 1.04 | 0.14 | 2.71 | (1.77) | 7.47 | |
| AFG | American Financial Group | (1.96) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 1.79 | (1.70) | 6.99 | |
| GGAL | Grupo Financiero Galicia | 1.53 | 7 per month | 1.81 | 0.14 | 7.30 | (3.58) | 43.45 | |
| GL | Globe Life | (0.21) | 9 per month | 0.83 | 0.02 | 1.94 | (1.44) | 4.88 | |
| SEIC | SEI Investments | (1.47) | 11 per month | 1.08 | 0.05 | 2.10 | (1.49) | 7.41 | |
| AIZ | Assurant | (0.07) | 24 per month | 0.81 | 0.12 | 2.07 | (1.70) | 5.46 |
Other Forecasting Options for Old Republic
For every potential investor in Old, whether a beginner or expert, Old Republic's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Old Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Old. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Old Republic's price trends.Old Republic Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Old Republic stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Old Republic could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Old Republic by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Old Republic Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Old Republic stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Old Republic shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Old Republic stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Old Republic International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Old Republic Risk Indicators
The analysis of Old Republic's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Old Republic's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting old stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.14 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.79 | |||
| Variance | 3.2 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.99 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.59 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.19) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Old Republic
The number of cover stories for Old Republic depends on current market conditions and Old Republic's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Old Republic is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Old Republic's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Old Republic to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Is there potential for Property & Casualty Insurance market expansion? Will Old introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Old Republic. Anticipated expansion of Old directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about Old Republic listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.973 | Dividend Share 1.16 | Earnings Share 3.72 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.193 |
Understanding Old Republic Interna requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Old's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Old Republic's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Old Republic's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Old Republic's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Old Republic should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Old Republic's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.