Ohio Valley Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| OVBC Stock | USD 40.31 0.90 2.18% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ohio Valley Banc on the next trading day is expected to be 40.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.64. Ohio Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ohio Valley stock prices and determine the direction of Ohio Valley Banc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ohio Valley's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Ohio Valley's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.114 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.049 |
Using Ohio Valley hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ohio Valley Banc from the perspective of Ohio Valley response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ohio Valley Banc on the next trading day is expected to be 40.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.64. Ohio Valley after-hype prediction price | USD 40.31 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ohio Valley to cross-verify your projections. Ohio Valley Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ohio price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ohio using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ohio charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ohio Valley Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ohio Valley Banc on the next trading day is expected to be 40.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39, mean absolute percentage error of 0.36, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.64.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ohio Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ohio Valley's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ohio Valley Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ohio Valley | Ohio Valley Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ohio Valley Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ohio Valley's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ohio Valley's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 38.72 and 41.90, respectively. We have considered Ohio Valley's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ohio Valley stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ohio Valley stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.2441 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0873 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.394 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0102 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 23.64 |
Predictive Modules for Ohio Valley
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ohio Valley Banc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ohio Valley After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ohio Valley at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ohio Valley or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ohio Valley, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ohio Valley Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ohio Valley's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ohio Valley's historical news coverage. Ohio Valley's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 38.71 and 41.91, respectively. We have considered Ohio Valley's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ohio Valley is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ohio Valley Banc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ohio Valley Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ohio Valley is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ohio Valley backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ohio Valley, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.28 | 1.59 | 0.18 | 0.02 | 14 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 14 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
40.31 | 40.31 | 0.00 |
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Ohio Valley Hype Timeline
Ohio Valley Banc is now traded for 40.31. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.18, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Ohio is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.28%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ohio Valley is about 2012.66%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 40.33. About 20.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.16. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Ohio Valley Banc last dividend was issued on the 31st of October 2025. The entity had 125:100 split on the 11th of May 2005. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 14 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ohio Valley to cross-verify your projections.Ohio Valley Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ohio Valley's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ohio Valley's future price movements. Getting to know how Ohio Valley's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ohio Valley may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MRBK | Meridian Bank | (0.01) | 29 per month | 1.01 | 0.17 | 4.14 | (2.24) | 8.97 | |
| UBFO | United Security Bancshares | (0.04) | 9 per month | 0.74 | 0.16 | 3.25 | (1.45) | 6.87 | |
| CZWI | Citizens Community Bancorp | 0.19 | 9 per month | 0.78 | 0.13 | 2.36 | (1.73) | 7.50 | |
| BVFL | BV Financial Common | 0.04 | 9 per month | 1.43 | 0.11 | 3.32 | (2.59) | 9.13 | |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares | (0.04) | 8 per month | 0.80 | 0.16 | 4.49 | (1.80) | 9.61 | |
| PEBK | Peoples Bancorp of | 0.47 | 9 per month | 1.05 | 0.14 | 3.60 | (2.01) | 7.98 | |
| HNVR | Hanover Bancorp | 0.15 | 12 per month | 0.90 | 0.09 | 2.54 | (2.05) | 7.48 | |
| ATLO | Ames National | (0.65) | 8 per month | 0.64 | 0.17 | 2.53 | (1.32) | 5.54 | |
| NKSH | National Bankshares | 0.53 | 1 per month | 1.20 | 0.17 | 4.17 | (1.75) | 7.44 | |
| MNSB | Mainstreet Bank | 0.15 | 7 per month | 1.30 | 0.08 | 3.35 | (2.64) | 7.09 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ohio Valley
For every potential investor in Ohio, whether a beginner or expert, Ohio Valley's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ohio Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ohio. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ohio Valley's price trends.Ohio Valley Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ohio Valley stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ohio Valley could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ohio Valley by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ohio Valley Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ohio Valley stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ohio Valley shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ohio Valley stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ohio Valley Banc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ohio Valley Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ohio Valley's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ohio Valley's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ohio stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.13 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9473 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Variance | 2.67 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.31 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8975 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.51) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ohio Valley
The number of cover stories for Ohio Valley depends on current market conditions and Ohio Valley's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ohio Valley is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ohio Valley's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ohio Valley Short Properties
Ohio Valley's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ohio Valley's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ohio Valley Banc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ohio Valley's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ohio Valley's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 281.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ohio Valley to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ohio Valley. If investors know Ohio will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ohio Valley listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.114 | Dividend Share 0.9 | Earnings Share 3 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.049 |
The market value of Ohio Valley Banc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ohio that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ohio Valley's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ohio Valley's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ohio Valley's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ohio Valley's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ohio Valley's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ohio Valley is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ohio Valley's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.