PACCAR Stock Forward View - 8 Period Moving Average

PCAR Stock

USD 114.34 -2.17 -1.86%

8 Period Moving Average is applied to PACCAR Inc's daily closing prices, and the resulting forecast is presented with accuracy metrics. Wide deviation between fitted and observed values suggests the model's assumptions may not match current market conditions. The 8 Period Moving Average model projects PACCAR at 116.41 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. This 8 Period Moving Average output is provided as analytical reference and does not constitute a trading recommendation.

The eight-period moving average forecast for PACCAR replaces each daily closing price with the mean of that value and the eight preceding observations. This wider window produces a smoother series that filters out short-term volatility.

8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 8th of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average model forecasts PACCAR at 116.41 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 3.28 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.03 , and sum of absolute errors of 173.82 .

This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of PACCAR's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Stock Forecast Pattern

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PACCAR Price Prediction

Research Analysis

Forecasted Value

The next-day forecast range for PACCAR defines statistically derived downside and upside boundaries based on model performance. The forecast band spans 114.62 to 118.20. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.

Market Value

114.34

114.62

Downside

116.41

Expected Value

118.20

Upside

Target Odds

Above Odds

Below Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the 8 Period Moving Average model's error metrics for PACCAR stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	106.2503
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	0.9305
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	3.2796
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.0275
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	173.8187

The eight-period window effectively dampens daily peaks and troughs in PACCAR Inc price data, making the underlying trend more visible. However, the model can only be used reliably for one or two periods ahead. A flat forecast line in a trending market indicates the smoothing window is too wide for the current price dynamics.

Other Forecasting Options for PACCAR

PACCAR's daily price returns decompose into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in PACCAR often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.

PACCAR Related Equities

Sizing up PACCAR against these stocks within the Industrials space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Growth rate gaps between PACCAR and its peers often explain pricing differences in the market. Sector-wide trends across this peer group split company-level factors from broader forces.

Roper Technologies United Rentals Cummins Ametek Inc Ferguson Plc L3Harris Technologies Carrier Global Corp WW Grainger Symbotic Canadian National Railway American Airlines Group Alcoa Corp Apple Inc Best Buy Co Citigroup

Risk & Return

Correlation

PACCAR Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for PACCAR stock provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. A rising Accumulation/Distribution line alongside rising price confirms institutional buying interest in PACCAR.

	Accumulation Distribution	0.0185
	Daily Balance Of Power	-1.00
	Rate Of Daily Change	0.98
	Day Median Price	115.42
	Day Typical Price	115.06
	Market Facilitation Index	2.16
	Price Action Indicator	-2.16
	Period Momentum Indicator	-2.17
	Relative Strength Index	41.36

PACCAR Risk Indicators

Assessing PACCAR's risk indicators is a structured way to evaluate the risk-return trade-off for paccar stock. The level of risk embedded in PACCAR's feeds directly into exposure calibration.

	Mean Deviation	1.32
	Standard Deviation	1.79
	Variance	3.2

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

PACCAR Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to PACCAR Inc matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.

	Common Stock Shares Outstanding	526.8 million
	Cash And Short Term Investments	9.25 billion

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