PACCAR Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| PCAR Stock | USD 122.00 1.56 1.26% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PACCAR Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 122.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 86.38. PACCAR Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although PACCAR's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of PACCAR's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of PACCAR fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of PACCAR's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.40) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.1914 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.4866 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.5801 | Wall Street Target Price 117.3224 |
Using PACCAR hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of PACCAR Inc from the perspective of PACCAR response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards PACCAR using PACCAR's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards PACCAR using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of PACCAR's stock price.
PACCAR Short Interest
An investor who is long PACCAR may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about PACCAR and may potentially protect profits, hedge PACCAR with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 99.3891 | Short Percent 0.0335 | Short Ratio 4.62 | Shares Short Prior Month 13.4 M | 50 Day MA 109.7414 |
PACCAR Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to PACCAR's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in PACCAR. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding PACCAR can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around PACCAR Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
PACCAR Implied Volatility | 0.49 |
PACCAR's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of PACCAR Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if PACCAR's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that PACCAR stock will not fluctuate a lot when PACCAR's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PACCAR Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 122.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 86.38. PACCAR after-hype prediction price | USD 121.79 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PACCAR to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current PACCAR contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that PACCAR Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0306% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With PACCAR trading at USD 122.0, that is roughly USD 0.0374 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating PACCAR's daily price movement you should consider acquiring PACCAR Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.49%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 PACCAR Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast PACCAR's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in PACCAR's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for PACCAR stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current PACCAR's open interest, investors have to compare it to PACCAR's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of PACCAR is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in PACCAR. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
PACCAR Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine PACCAR price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for PACCAR using various technical indicators. When you analyze PACCAR charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
PACCAR Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PACCAR Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 122.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.44, mean absolute percentage error of 3.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 86.38.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PACCAR Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PACCAR's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
PACCAR Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest PACCAR | PACCAR Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
PACCAR Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting PACCAR's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PACCAR's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 120.99 and 124.35, respectively. We have considered PACCAR's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PACCAR stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PACCAR stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2213 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4397 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0134 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 86.3826 |
Predictive Modules for PACCAR
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PACCAR Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.PACCAR After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of PACCAR at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in PACCAR or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of PACCAR, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
PACCAR Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting PACCAR's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on PACCAR's historical news coverage. PACCAR's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 120.11 and 123.47, respectively. We have considered PACCAR's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
PACCAR is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of PACCAR Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
PACCAR Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as PACCAR is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading PACCAR backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with PACCAR, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.35 | 1.68 | 0.21 | 1.45 | 2 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
122.00 | 121.79 | 0.17 |
|
PACCAR Hype Timeline
PACCAR Inc is at this time traded for 122.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.21, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -1.45. PACCAR is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 121.79. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.17%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.35%. The volatility of related hype on PACCAR is about 40.63%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 120.55. About 73.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of PACCAR was at this time reported as 36.88. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.04. PACCAR Inc last dividend was issued on the 11th of February 2026. The entity had 3:2 split on the 8th of February 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PACCAR to cross-verify your projections.PACCAR Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to PACCAR's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict PACCAR's future price movements. Getting to know how PACCAR's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how PACCAR may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ROP | Roper Technologies | 1.06 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.31) | 1.54 | (2.35) | 7.40 | |
| URI | United Rentals | (15.34) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.90 | (3.19) | 7.99 | |
| CMI | Cummins | (0.78) | 4 per month | 1.16 | 0.23 | 2.87 | (2.39) | 9.83 | |
| AME | Ametek Inc | (0.59) | 2 per month | 0.65 | 0.13 | 2.39 | (1.39) | 9.36 | |
| FERG | Ferguson Plc | (1.21) | 9 per month | 2.02 | 0.01 | 2.77 | (2.56) | 11.07 | |
| LHX | L3Harris Technologies | (20.35) | 8 per month | 1.12 | 0.15 | 3.09 | (2.27) | 7.10 | |
| CARR | Carrier Global Corp | (0.59) | 25 per month | 1.64 | (0.03) | 4.09 | (2.33) | 8.90 | |
| GWW | WW Grainger | (0.78) | 4 per month | 1.01 | 0.05 | 2.85 | (1.69) | 7.07 | |
| SYM | Symbotic | (1.18) | 10 per month | 6.45 | 0.0002 | 9.37 | (10.11) | 60.87 | |
| CNI | Canadian National Railway | (1.59) | 9 per month | 1.16 | 0.01 | 2.27 | (1.65) | 6.71 |
Other Forecasting Options for PACCAR
For every potential investor in PACCAR, whether a beginner or expert, PACCAR's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. PACCAR Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in PACCAR. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PACCAR's price trends.PACCAR Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PACCAR stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PACCAR could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PACCAR by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PACCAR Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PACCAR stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PACCAR shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PACCAR stock market strength indicators, traders can identify PACCAR Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 45276.77 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.66) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 122.6 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 122.4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.38) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.56) |
PACCAR Risk Indicators
The analysis of PACCAR's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PACCAR's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting paccar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7441 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Variance | 2.69 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.08 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.5537 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.73) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for PACCAR
The number of cover stories for PACCAR depends on current market conditions and PACCAR's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that PACCAR is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about PACCAR's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
PACCAR Short Properties
PACCAR's future price predictability will typically decrease when PACCAR's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of PACCAR Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential PACCAR's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PACCAR's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 526.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.8 B |
Additional Tools for PACCAR Stock Analysis
When running PACCAR's price analysis, check to measure PACCAR's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PACCAR is operating at the current time. Most of PACCAR's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PACCAR's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PACCAR's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PACCAR to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.