Penguin Solutions Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| PENG Stock | 20.00 0.73 3.52% |
Penguin Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Penguin Solutions' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 26th of January 2026, the relative strength index (RSI) of Penguin Solutions' share price is approaching 46 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Penguin Solutions, making its price go up or down. Momentum 46
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.61) | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.0387 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.4077 | Wall Street Target Price 26.875 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.4431 |
Using Penguin Solutions hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Penguin Solutions from the perspective of Penguin Solutions response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Penguin Solutions using Penguin Solutions' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Penguin using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Penguin Solutions' stock price.
Penguin Solutions Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Penguin Solutions' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Penguin. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Penguin Solutions stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 21.3875 | Short Percent 0.1815 | Short Ratio 8.37 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.2 M | 50 Day MA 20.0267 |
Penguin Relative Strength Index
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Penguin Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be 19.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.91.Penguin Solutions Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Penguin Solutions' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Penguin. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Penguin can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Penguin Solutions. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Penguin Solutions' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Penguin Solutions.
Penguin Solutions Implied Volatility | 0.65 |
Penguin Solutions' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Penguin Solutions stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Penguin Solutions' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Penguin Solutions stock will not fluctuate a lot when Penguin Solutions' options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Penguin Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be 19.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.91. Penguin Solutions after-hype prediction price | USD 20.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Penguin Solutions to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Penguin contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Penguin Solutions will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0406% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Penguin Solutions trading at USD 20.0, that is roughly USD 0.008125 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Penguin Solutions' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Penguin Solutions options at the current volatility level of 0.65%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Penguin Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Penguin Solutions' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Penguin Solutions' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Penguin Solutions stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Penguin Solutions' open interest, investors have to compare it to Penguin Solutions' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Penguin Solutions is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Penguin. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Penguin Solutions Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Penguin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Penguin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Penguin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Penguin Solutions Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Penguin Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be 19.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54, mean absolute percentage error of 0.56, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.91.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Penguin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Penguin Solutions' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Penguin Solutions Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Penguin Solutions | Penguin Solutions Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Penguin Solutions Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Penguin Solutions' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Penguin Solutions' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.55 and 23.40, respectively. We have considered Penguin Solutions' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Penguin Solutions stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Penguin Solutions stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1151 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5408 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0267 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.9066 |
Predictive Modules for Penguin Solutions
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Penguin Solutions. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Penguin Solutions After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Penguin Solutions at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Penguin Solutions or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Penguin Solutions, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Penguin Solutions Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Penguin Solutions' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Penguin Solutions' historical news coverage. Penguin Solutions' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 16.60 and 23.40, respectively. We have considered Penguin Solutions' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Penguin Solutions is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Penguin Solutions is based on 3 months time horizon.
Penguin Solutions Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Penguin Solutions is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Penguin Solutions backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Penguin Solutions, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 3.43 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 26 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 26 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
20.00 | 20.00 | 0.00 |
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Penguin Solutions Hype Timeline
Penguin Solutions is at this time traded for 20.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Penguin is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.16%. %. The volatility of related hype on Penguin Solutions is about 2432.62%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.98. About 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Penguin Solutions was at this time reported as 7.41. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Penguin Solutions had 2:1 split on the 2nd of February 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 26 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Penguin Solutions to cross-verify your projections.Penguin Solutions Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Penguin Solutions' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Penguin Solutions' future price movements. Getting to know how Penguin Solutions' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Penguin Solutions may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CTS | CTS Corporation | 0.09 | 10 per month | 1.73 | 0.12 | 3.37 | (3.10) | 8.33 | |
| DAKT | Daktronics | (0.34) | 16 per month | 2.36 | 0.03 | 3.59 | (2.95) | 24.79 | |
| ALNT | Allient | (0.34) | 4 per month | 2.20 | 0.10 | 5.29 | (4.40) | 15.33 | |
| HLIT | Harmonic | 0.09 | 16 per month | 2.41 | (0.03) | 3.24 | (3.80) | 11.35 | |
| RPD | Rapid7 Inc | 0.35 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 3.15 | (4.71) | 22.50 | |
| TIXT | TELUS International | 0.14 | 29 per month | 0.92 | 0.07 | 2.41 | (1.78) | 17.91 | |
| FSLY | Fastly Class A | (0.36) | 2 per month | 2.88 | 0.04 | 5.70 | (5.51) | 44.62 | |
| YALA | Yalla Group | 0.04 | 8 per month | 2.31 | (0.02) | 3.40 | (3.20) | 14.49 | |
| VRNT | Verint Systems | 0.02 | 5 per month | 0.06 | (0.31) | 0.20 | (0.20) | 0.79 | |
| NTSK | Netskope Class A | (1.10) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 5.55 | (7.68) | 19.31 |
Other Forecasting Options for Penguin Solutions
For every potential investor in Penguin, whether a beginner or expert, Penguin Solutions' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Penguin Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Penguin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Penguin Solutions' price trends.Penguin Solutions Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Penguin Solutions stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Penguin Solutions could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Penguin Solutions by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Penguin Solutions Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Penguin Solutions stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Penguin Solutions shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Penguin Solutions stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Penguin Solutions entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Penguin Solutions Risk Indicators
The analysis of Penguin Solutions' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Penguin Solutions' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting penguin stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.35 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.33 | |||
| Variance | 11.11 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Penguin Solutions
The number of cover stories for Penguin Solutions depends on current market conditions and Penguin Solutions' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Penguin Solutions is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Penguin Solutions' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Penguin Solutions Short Properties
Penguin Solutions' future price predictability will typically decrease when Penguin Solutions' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Penguin Solutions often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Penguin Solutions' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Penguin Solutions' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 54.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 453.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Penguin Solutions to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Penguin Stock please use our How to Invest in Penguin Solutions guide.You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Is Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Penguin Solutions. If investors know Penguin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Penguin Solutions listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.61) | Earnings Share 0.22 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.006 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Penguin Solutions is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Penguin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Penguin Solutions' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Penguin Solutions' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Penguin Solutions' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Penguin Solutions' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Penguin Solutions' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Penguin Solutions is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Penguin Solutions' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.