Rhinebeck Bancorp Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| RBKB Stock | USD 12.34 0.06 0.49% |
Rhinebeck Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Rhinebeck Bancorp stock prices and determine the direction of Rhinebeck Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Rhinebeck Bancorp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Rhinebeck Bancorp's share price is at 59 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Rhinebeck Bancorp, making its price go up or down. Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.778 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.293 |
Using Rhinebeck Bancorp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Rhinebeck Bancorp from the perspective of Rhinebeck Bancorp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Rhinebeck Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 12.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.86. Rhinebeck Bancorp after-hype prediction price | USD 12.18 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Rhinebeck Bancorp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Rhinebeck price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Rhinebeck using various technical indicators. When you analyze Rhinebeck charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Rhinebeck Bancorp Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Rhinebeck Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 12.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.86.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Rhinebeck Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Rhinebeck Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Rhinebeck Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Rhinebeck Bancorp | Rhinebeck Bancorp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Rhinebeck Bancorp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Rhinebeck Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Rhinebeck Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.49 and 14.19, respectively. We have considered Rhinebeck Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Rhinebeck Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Rhinebeck Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.0614 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0383 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1477 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0129 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.86 |
Predictive Modules for Rhinebeck Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Rhinebeck Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Rhinebeck Bancorp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Rhinebeck Bancorp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Rhinebeck Bancorp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Rhinebeck Bancorp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Rhinebeck Bancorp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Rhinebeck Bancorp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Rhinebeck Bancorp's historical news coverage. Rhinebeck Bancorp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.33 and 14.03, respectively. We have considered Rhinebeck Bancorp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Rhinebeck Bancorp is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Rhinebeck Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Rhinebeck Bancorp Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Rhinebeck Bancorp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Rhinebeck Bancorp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Rhinebeck Bancorp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.42 | 1.85 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 5 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
12.34 | 12.18 | 0.81 |
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Rhinebeck Bancorp Hype Timeline
Rhinebeck Bancorp is at this time traded for 12.34. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Rhinebeck is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 12.18. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.81%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.42%. The volatility of related hype on Rhinebeck Bancorp is about 5000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.36. About 59.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.03. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Rhinebeck Bancorp had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rhinebeck Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.Rhinebeck Bancorp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Rhinebeck Bancorp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Rhinebeck Bancorp's future price movements. Getting to know how Rhinebeck Bancorp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Rhinebeck Bancorp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RVSB | Riverview Bancorp | 0.11 | 10 per month | 1.62 | (0.03) | 3.33 | (2.50) | 9.27 | |
| SFBC | Sound Financial Bancorp | 0.14 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.00 | (1.15) | 6.34 | |
| LSBK | Lake Shore Bancorp | (0.19) | 10 per month | 0.73 | 0.21 | 2.39 | (1.48) | 5.78 | |
| MGYR | Magyar Bancorp | (0.1) | 7 per month | 1.12 | (0.02) | 1.81 | (2.09) | 6.78 | |
| SRBK | SR Bancorp Common | (0.06) | 9 per month | 1.06 | 0.11 | 2.51 | (1.36) | 8.56 | |
| PROV | Provident Financial Holdings | 0.09 | 9 per month | 0.75 | 0.01 | 1.34 | (1.04) | 4.66 | |
| AFBI | Affinity Bancshares | 0.25 | 6 per month | 1.33 | 0.04 | 2.51 | (2.18) | 13.88 | |
| UNB | Union Bankshares | 0.16 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.72 | (3.21) | 10.46 | |
| SBFG | SB Financial Group | (0.23) | 11 per month | 2.29 | 0.06 | 4.58 | (3.96) | 10.28 | |
| FGBI | First Guaranty Bancshares | 0.20 | 8 per month | 4.74 | 0.02 | 5.38 | (7.07) | 20.50 |
Other Forecasting Options for Rhinebeck Bancorp
For every potential investor in Rhinebeck, whether a beginner or expert, Rhinebeck Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Rhinebeck Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Rhinebeck. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Rhinebeck Bancorp's price trends.Rhinebeck Bancorp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Rhinebeck Bancorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Rhinebeck Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Rhinebeck Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Rhinebeck Bancorp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Rhinebeck Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Rhinebeck Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Rhinebeck Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Rhinebeck Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Rhinebeck Bancorp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Rhinebeck Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Rhinebeck Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rhinebeck stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.92 | |||
| Variance | 3.69 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.07 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.45 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.87) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Rhinebeck Bancorp
The number of cover stories for Rhinebeck Bancorp depends on current market conditions and Rhinebeck Bancorp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Rhinebeck Bancorp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Rhinebeck Bancorp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Rhinebeck Bancorp Short Properties
Rhinebeck Bancorp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Rhinebeck Bancorp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Rhinebeck Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Rhinebeck Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Rhinebeck Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 147.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rhinebeck Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Rhinebeck Stock refer to our How to Trade Rhinebeck Stock guide.You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Rhinebeck Bancorp. If investors know Rhinebeck will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Rhinebeck Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.778 | Earnings Share 0.45 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.293 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Rhinebeck Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Rhinebeck that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Rhinebeck Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Rhinebeck Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Rhinebeck Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Rhinebeck Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Rhinebeck Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Rhinebeck Bancorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Rhinebeck Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.