Riley Exploration Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| REPX Stock | USD 27.51 0.05 0.18% |
Riley Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength momentum indicator of Riley Exploration's share price is at 55 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Riley Exploration, making its price go up or down. Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.36) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.575 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.54 | Wall Street Target Price 46 |
Using Riley Exploration hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Riley Exploration Permian from the perspective of Riley Exploration response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Riley Exploration using Riley Exploration's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Riley using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Riley Exploration's stock price.
Riley Exploration Short Interest
An investor who is long Riley Exploration may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Riley Exploration and may potentially protect profits, hedge Riley Exploration with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 26.7611 | Short Percent 0.0549 | Short Ratio 3.68 | Shares Short Prior Month 590.2 K | 50 Day MA 26.6282 |
Riley Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Riley Exploration Permian on the next trading day is expected to be 27.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.01.Riley Exploration Permian Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Riley Exploration's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Riley. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Riley can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Riley Exploration Permian. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Riley Exploration's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Riley Exploration.
Riley Exploration Implied Volatility | 0.78 |
Riley Exploration's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Riley Exploration Permian stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Riley Exploration's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Riley Exploration stock will not fluctuate a lot when Riley Exploration's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Riley Exploration Permian on the next trading day is expected to be 27.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.01. Riley Exploration after-hype prediction price | USD 27.63 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Riley Exploration to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Riley contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Riley Exploration Permian will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0488% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Riley Exploration trading at USD 27.51, that is roughly USD 0.0134 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Riley Exploration's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Riley Exploration Permian options at the current volatility level of 0.78%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Riley Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Riley Exploration's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Riley Exploration's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Riley Exploration stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Riley Exploration's open interest, investors have to compare it to Riley Exploration's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Riley Exploration is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Riley. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Riley Exploration Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Riley price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Riley using various technical indicators. When you analyze Riley charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Riley Exploration's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1998-03-31 | Previous Quarter 14 M | Current Value 16.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 4.8 M |
Riley Exploration Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Riley Exploration Permian on the next trading day is expected to be 27.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44, mean absolute percentage error of 0.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.01.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Riley Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Riley Exploration's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Riley Exploration Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Riley Exploration | Riley Exploration Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Riley Exploration Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Riley Exploration's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Riley Exploration's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.89 and 29.57, respectively. We have considered Riley Exploration's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Riley Exploration stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Riley Exploration stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.8265 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4356 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0168 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 27.0052 |
Predictive Modules for Riley Exploration
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Riley Exploration Permian. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Riley Exploration After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Riley Exploration at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Riley Exploration or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Riley Exploration, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Riley Exploration Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Riley Exploration's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Riley Exploration's historical news coverage. Riley Exploration's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25.30 and 29.96, respectively. We have considered Riley Exploration's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Riley Exploration is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Riley Exploration Permian is based on 3 months time horizon.
Riley Exploration Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Riley Exploration is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Riley Exploration backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Riley Exploration, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 2.34 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
27.51 | 27.63 | 0.44 |
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Riley Exploration Hype Timeline
Riley Exploration Permian is at this time traded for 27.51. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.13, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Riley is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 27.63 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is forecasted to be 0.44%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.15%. The volatility of related hype on Riley Exploration is about 1224.42%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 27.54. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 410.18 M. Net Income was 88.9 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 284.55 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Riley Exploration to cross-verify your projections.Riley Exploration Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Riley Exploration's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Riley Exploration's future price movements. Getting to know how Riley Exploration's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Riley Exploration may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SD | SandRidge Energy | 0.46 | 9 per month | 1.68 | 0.19 | 4.49 | (2.46) | 10.99 | |
| VTLE | Vital Energy | 0.46 | 24 per month | 3.23 | 0.03 | 6.39 | (5.94) | 16.09 | |
| GPRK | GeoPark | (0.05) | 9 per month | 2.21 | 0.09 | 6.47 | (3.38) | 32.73 | |
| NGL | NGL Energy Partners | 0.62 | 11 per month | 2.10 | 0.20 | 6.92 | (3.58) | 36.12 | |
| KOS | Kosmos Energy | (0.89) | 16 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 10.27 | (5.99) | 25.11 | |
| CLNE | Clean Energy Fuels | 0.46 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.62 | (3.81) | 22.82 | |
| HPK | Highpeak Energy Acquisition | 0.09 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 8.28 | (8.90) | 21.96 | |
| EGY | Vaalco Energy | 0.05 | 10 per month | 1.62 | 0.14 | 4.84 | (3.33) | 8.83 | |
| GRNT | Granite Ridge Resources | 0.52 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.31 | (4.27) | 8.29 |
Other Forecasting Options for Riley Exploration
For every potential investor in Riley, whether a beginner or expert, Riley Exploration's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Riley Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Riley. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Riley Exploration's price trends.Riley Exploration Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Riley Exploration stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Riley Exploration could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Riley Exploration by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Riley Exploration Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Riley Exploration stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Riley Exploration shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Riley Exploration stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Riley Exploration Permian entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Riley Exploration Risk Indicators
The analysis of Riley Exploration's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Riley Exploration's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting riley stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.72 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.99 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.26 | |||
| Variance | 5.11 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.66 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.97 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.77) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Riley Exploration
The number of cover stories for Riley Exploration depends on current market conditions and Riley Exploration's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Riley Exploration is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Riley Exploration's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Riley Exploration Short Properties
Riley Exploration's future price predictability will typically decrease when Riley Exploration's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Riley Exploration Permian often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Riley Exploration's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Riley Exploration's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 20.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 13.1 M |
Additional Tools for Riley Stock Analysis
When running Riley Exploration's price analysis, check to measure Riley Exploration's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Riley Exploration is operating at the current time. Most of Riley Exploration's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Riley Exploration's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Riley Exploration's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Riley Exploration to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.