Sunrun Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| RUN Stock | USD 18.20 0.96 5.01% |
Sunrun Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Sunrun's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Sunrun hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Sunrun Inc from the perspective of Sunrun response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sunrun Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 18.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.71 and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.18. Sunrun after-hype prediction price | USD 18.07 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sunrun to cross-verify your projections. Sunrun Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Sunrun price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Sunrun using various technical indicators. When you analyze Sunrun charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Sunrun Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sunrun Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 18.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.71, mean absolute percentage error of 0.74, and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.18.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sunrun Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sunrun's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Sunrun Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Sunrun | Sunrun Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Sunrun Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Sunrun's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sunrun's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.75 and 22.82, respectively. We have considered Sunrun's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sunrun stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sunrun stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0902 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.715 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0377 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 42.1841 |
Predictive Modules for Sunrun
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sunrun Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Sunrun's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Sunrun After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Sunrun at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Sunrun or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Sunrun, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Sunrun Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Sunrun's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Sunrun's historical news coverage. Sunrun's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.55 and 22.59, respectively. We have considered Sunrun's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Sunrun is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Sunrun Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Sunrun Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Sunrun is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Sunrun backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Sunrun, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 4.53 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
18.20 | 18.07 | 1.53 |
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Sunrun Hype Timeline
On the 12th of February 2026 Sunrun Inc is traded for 18.20. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.03. Sunrun is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 18.07. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -1.53%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.06%. The volatility of related hype on Sunrun is about 866.16%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.23. About 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.61. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Sunrun Inc has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.45. The entity recorded a loss per share of 11.33. The firm had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sunrun to cross-verify your projections.Sunrun Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Sunrun's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Sunrun's future price movements. Getting to know how Sunrun's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Sunrun may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ENPH | Enphase Energy | 3.67 | 7 per month | 3.00 | 0.11 | 5.35 | (5.86) | 47.12 | |
| SEDG | SolarEdge Technologies | (0.18) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 8.69 | (7.78) | 27.78 | |
| FRO | Frontline | (0.39) | 10 per month | 2.10 | 0.12 | 3.77 | (3.88) | 13.55 | |
| CNR | Core Natural Resources | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.22 | 0.04 | 4.98 | (3.59) | 12.04 | |
| NOV | NOV Inc | 0.17 | 11 per month | 2.14 | 0.11 | 4.85 | (4.47) | 12.40 | |
| CHRD | Chord Energy Corp | 0.22 | 6 per month | 2.08 | 0.07 | 3.83 | (3.62) | 10.10 | |
| WFRD | Weatherford International plc | 2.28 | 9 per month | 1.87 | 0.17 | 4.77 | (3.39) | 13.20 | |
| MTDR | Matador Resources | (0.13) | 9 per month | 2.06 | 0.1 | 3.50 | (3.47) | 9.76 | |
| CNX | CNX Resources Corp | (0.72) | 11 per month | 1.82 | 0.05 | 3.44 | (3.34) | 8.32 | |
| VVV | Valvoline | 0.31 | 8 per month | 1.47 | 0.10 | 3.83 | (2.86) | 8.38 |
Other Forecasting Options for Sunrun
For every potential investor in Sunrun, whether a beginner or expert, Sunrun's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sunrun Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sunrun. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sunrun's price trends.Sunrun Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sunrun stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sunrun could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sunrun by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sunrun Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sunrun stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sunrun shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sunrun stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sunrun Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 410133.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.67) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.95 | |||
| Day Median Price | 18.67 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 18.51 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.95) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.96) |
Sunrun Risk Indicators
The analysis of Sunrun's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sunrun's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sunrun stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.67 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.44 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.53 | |||
| Variance | 20.54 | |||
| Downside Variance | 20.46 | |||
| Semi Variance | 19.71 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.79) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Sunrun
The number of cover stories for Sunrun depends on current market conditions and Sunrun's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Sunrun is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Sunrun's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Sunrun Short Properties
Sunrun's future price predictability will typically decrease when Sunrun's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Sunrun Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Sunrun's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sunrun's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 222.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 575 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sunrun to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Will Electrical Components & Equipment sector continue expanding? Could Sunrun diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Sunrun. Anticipated expansion of Sunrun directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Sunrun data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Sunrun Inc's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Sunrun's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Sunrun's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Sunrun's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Sunrun's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Sunrun should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Sunrun's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.