Star Bulk Stock Forward View - Simple Regression

SBLK Stock  USD 22.95  0.05  0.22%   
Star Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of relative strength index of Star Bulk's share price is above 70 as of now. This usually implies that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Star, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 71

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Star Bulk's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Star Bulk Carriers, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Star Bulk hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Star Bulk Carriers from the perspective of Star Bulk response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Star Bulk Carriers on the next trading day is expected to be 21.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.71 and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.54.

Star Bulk after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 22.95  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Star Bulk to cross-verify your projections.

Star Bulk Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Star price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Star using various technical indicators. When you analyze Star charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Star Bulk price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Star Bulk Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 2nd of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Star Bulk Carriers on the next trading day is expected to be 21.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.71, mean absolute percentage error of 0.74, and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.54.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Star Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Star Bulk's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Star Bulk Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Star Bulk  Star Bulk Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Star Bulk Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Star Bulk's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Star Bulk's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.60 and 23.26, respectively. We have considered Star Bulk's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
22.95
21.43
Expected Value
23.26
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Star Bulk stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Star Bulk stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.813
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.7137
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0362
SAESum of the absolute errors43.5374
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Star Bulk Carriers historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Star Bulk

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Star Bulk Carriers. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
21.1222.9524.78
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
17.0318.8625.25
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
18.4620.8423.22
Details

Star Bulk After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Star Bulk at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Star Bulk or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Star Bulk, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Star Bulk Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Star Bulk's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Star Bulk's historical news coverage. Star Bulk's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 21.12 and 24.78, respectively. We have considered Star Bulk's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
22.95
22.95
After-hype Price
24.78
Upside
Star Bulk is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Star Bulk Carriers is based on 3 months time horizon.

Star Bulk Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Star Bulk is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Star Bulk backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Star Bulk, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.39 
1.83
 0.00  
  0.12 
0 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
22.95
22.95
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Star Bulk Hype Timeline

Star Bulk Carriers is at this time traded for 22.95. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.12. Star is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.39%. %. The volatility of related hype on Star Bulk is about 575.87%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 23.07. About 23.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.08. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Star Bulk Carriers has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.95. The entity last dividend was issued on the 5th of December 2025. The firm had 1:5 split on the 20th of June 2016. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Star Bulk to cross-verify your projections.

Star Bulk Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Star Bulk's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Star Bulk's future price movements. Getting to know how Star Bulk's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Star Bulk may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Star Bulk

For every potential investor in Star, whether a beginner or expert, Star Bulk's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Star Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Star. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Star Bulk's price trends.

Star Bulk Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Star Bulk stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Star Bulk could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Star Bulk by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Star Bulk Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Star Bulk stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Star Bulk shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Star Bulk stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Star Bulk Carriers entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Star Bulk Risk Indicators

The analysis of Star Bulk's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Star Bulk's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting star stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Star Bulk

The number of cover stories for Star Bulk depends on current market conditions and Star Bulk's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Star Bulk is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Star Bulk's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Star Bulk Short Properties

Star Bulk's future price predictability will typically decrease when Star Bulk's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Star Bulk Carriers often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Star Bulk's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Star Bulk's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding108.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments425.1 M
When determining whether Star Bulk Carriers is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Star Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Star Bulk Carriers Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Star Bulk Carriers Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Star Bulk to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Is Marine Transportation space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Star Bulk. If investors know Star will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Star Bulk assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
The market value of Star Bulk Carriers is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Star that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Star Bulk's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Star Bulk's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Star Bulk's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Star Bulk's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Star Bulk's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Star Bulk is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, Star Bulk's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.