Stifel Financial Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SF Stock | USD 128.30 2.58 1.97% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Stifel Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 130.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 108.31. Stifel Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Stifel Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 24th of January 2026 the relative strength indicator of Stifel Financial's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.373 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.4573 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.3009 | EPS Estimate Next Year 9.6965 | Wall Street Target Price 139.75 |
Using Stifel Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Stifel Financial from the perspective of Stifel Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Stifel Financial using Stifel Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Stifel using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Stifel Financial's stock price.
Stifel Financial Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Stifel Financial's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Stifel. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Stifel Financial stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 110.178 | Short Percent 0.0254 | Short Ratio 3.48 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.3 M | 50 Day MA 125.735 |
Stifel Financial Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Stifel Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Stifel. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Stifel can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Stifel Financial. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Stifel Financial Implied Volatility | 0.39 |
Stifel Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Stifel Financial stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Stifel Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Stifel Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Stifel Financial's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Stifel Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 130.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 108.31. Stifel Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 128.19 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Stifel Financial to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Stifel contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Stifel Financial will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0244% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Stifel Financial trading at USD 128.3, that is roughly USD 0.0313 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Stifel Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Stifel Financial options at the current volatility level of 0.39%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Stifel Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Stifel Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Stifel Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Stifel Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Stifel Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to Stifel Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Stifel Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Stifel. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Stifel Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Stifel price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Stifel using various technical indicators. When you analyze Stifel charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Stifel Financial Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Stifel Financial's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 1989-03-31 | Previous Quarter 2.2 B | Current Value 3.6 B | Quarterly Volatility 844.4 M |
Stifel Financial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Stifel Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 130.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.75, mean absolute percentage error of 5.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 108.31.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Stifel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Stifel Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stifel Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Stifel Financial | Stifel Financial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Stifel Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Stifel Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Stifel Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 128.62 and 131.47, respectively. We have considered Stifel Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Stifel Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Stifel Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.5635 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.7469 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.014 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 108.3074 |
Predictive Modules for Stifel Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Stifel Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Stifel Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Stifel Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Stifel Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Stifel Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Stifel Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Stifel Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Stifel Financial's historical news coverage. Stifel Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 126.77 and 129.61, respectively. We have considered Stifel Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Stifel Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Stifel Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
Stifel Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Stifel Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Stifel Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Stifel Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 1.42 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 6 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
128.30 | 128.19 | 0.09 |
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Stifel Financial Hype Timeline
As of January 24, 2026 Stifel Financial is listed for 128.30. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Stifel is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 128.19. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 175.31%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.09%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.14%. The volatility of related hype on Stifel Financial is about 479.73%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 128.34. About 89.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Stifel Financial was at this time reported as 49.74. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.26. Stifel Financial recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.65. The entity last dividend was issued on the 1st of December 2025. The firm had 3:2 split on the 17th of December 2020. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Stifel Financial to cross-verify your projections.Stifel Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Stifel Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Stifel Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Stifel Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Stifel Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EVR | Evercore Partners | 1.44 | 10 per month | 2.39 | 0.06 | 3.24 | (3.26) | 11.14 | |
| HLI | Houlihan Lokey | (0.57) | 22 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.61 | (2.26) | 11.75 | |
| JEF | Jefferies Financial Group | 1.15 | 7 per month | 2.15 | 0.08 | 2.87 | (4.66) | 11.46 | |
| GLXY | Galaxy Digital Holdings | 1.20 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 8.10 | (10.42) | 23.29 | |
| ALLY | Ally Financial | 0.14 | 17 per month | 1.56 | (0.02) | 2.77 | (2.73) | 8.03 | |
| XP | Xp Inc | 0.43 | 8 per month | 2.88 | 0.07 | 4.64 | (4.83) | 15.10 | |
| RGA | Reinsurance Group of | 0.1 | 8 per month | 1.07 | (0.01) | 2.36 | (2.08) | 5.26 | |
| CNA | CNA Financial | (0.34) | 10 per month | 0.92 | (0.04) | 1.55 | (1.80) | 4.93 | |
| FHN | First Horizon National | 0.09 | 8 per month | 1.05 | 0.12 | 2.71 | (1.77) | 6.38 | |
| AEG | Aegon NV ADR | (0.68) | 8 per month | 2.09 | 0 | 2.39 | (2.18) | 11.41 |
Other Forecasting Options for Stifel Financial
For every potential investor in Stifel, whether a beginner or expert, Stifel Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Stifel Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Stifel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Stifel Financial's price trends.Stifel Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Stifel Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Stifel Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Stifel Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Stifel Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Stifel Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Stifel Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Stifel Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Stifel Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 20737.22 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.61) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 129.07 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 128.81 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.06) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (2.58) |
Stifel Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Stifel Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Stifel Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting stifel stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.11 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Variance | 2.1 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.37 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.5 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.12) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Stifel Financial
The number of cover stories for Stifel Financial depends on current market conditions and Stifel Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Stifel Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Stifel Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Stifel Financial Short Properties
Stifel Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Stifel Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Stifel Financial often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Stifel Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Stifel Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 111 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Stifel Financial to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Stifel Stock please use our How to Invest in Stifel Financial guide.You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Is Investment Banking & Brokerage space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Stifel Financial. If investors know Stifel will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Stifel Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.373 | Dividend Share 1.8 | Earnings Share 5.65 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.165 |
The market value of Stifel Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Stifel that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Stifel Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Stifel Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Stifel Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Stifel Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Stifel Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Stifel Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Stifel Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.