Selective Insurance Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| SIGI Stock | USD 84.69 1.69 2.04% |
Selective Insurance's Polynomial Regression forecast is computed from observed closing prices over the selected horizon. The accuracy statistics below distinguish a well-fitted model from one that is smoothing over meaningful price movement. The Polynomial Regression model projects Selective Insurance at 85.22 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. The Polynomial Regression output reflects statistical model results and is provided for reference purposes.
Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 9th of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the Polynomial Regression model forecasts Selective Insurance at 85.22 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 1.65 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and sum of absolute errors of 100.83 .This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Selective Insurance's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Selective Insurance | Selective Insurance Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast range for Selective Insurance defines statistically derived downside and upside boundaries based on model performance. Downside is estimated near 83.39 and upside near 87.04. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Polynomial Regression model's error metrics for Selective Insurance stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.4878 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.653 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0206 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 100.8338 |
Other Forecasting Options for Selective Insurance
Analyzing Selective Insurance's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in Selective Insurance's chart signal overbought or oversold conditions.Selective Insurance Related Equities
The peer firms below within the Financials space frame Selective Insurance's pricing and running costs in context. Checking Selective Insurance against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context. Falling behind peers on key ratios may signal headwinds or execution issues worth looking into. Combining quantitative ratios with qualitative context such as management quality and market position sharpens peer comparisons.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Selective Insurance Market Strength Events
For investors tracking Selective Insurance Group, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. When Rate of Change diverges from price direction, it often signals weakening momentum before a visible reversal in Selective Insurance.
Selective Insurance Risk Indicators
Analyzing Selective Insurance's basic risk indicators provides a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for selective stock. Expected shortfall estimates the average loss in the worst-case tail scenarios, going beyond what standard deviation alone captures for Selective Insurance.
| Mean Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.84 | |||
| Variance | 3.37 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Selective Insurance Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Selective Insurance Group matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 61.1 million | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 17.96 million |