Skyward Specialty Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| SKWD Stock | 44.62 0.53 1.17% |
Skyward Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Skyward Specialty stock prices and determine the direction of Skyward Specialty Insurance's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Skyward Specialty's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength indicator of Skyward Specialty's share price is approaching 43. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Skyward Specialty, making its price go up or down. Momentum 43
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Skyward Specialty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Skyward Specialty Insurance from the perspective of Skyward Specialty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Skyward Specialty Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 46.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.71 and the sum of the absolute errors of 104.30. Skyward Specialty after-hype prediction price | USD 44.62 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Skyward Specialty to cross-verify your projections. Skyward Specialty Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Skyward price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Skyward using various technical indicators. When you analyze Skyward charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Skyward Specialty Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Skyward Specialty Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 46.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.71, mean absolute percentage error of 4.49, and the sum of the absolute errors of 104.30.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Skyward Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Skyward Specialty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Skyward Specialty Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Skyward Specialty | Skyward Specialty Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Skyward Specialty Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Skyward Specialty's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Skyward Specialty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 44.57 and 48.98, respectively. We have considered Skyward Specialty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Skyward Specialty stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Skyward Specialty stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.6131 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.7098 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0354 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 104.2982 |
Predictive Modules for Skyward Specialty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Skyward Specialty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Skyward Specialty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Skyward Specialty After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Skyward Specialty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Skyward Specialty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Skyward Specialty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Skyward Specialty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Skyward Specialty's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Skyward Specialty's historical news coverage. Skyward Specialty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 42.42 and 46.82, respectively. We have considered Skyward Specialty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Skyward Specialty is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Skyward Specialty is based on 3 months time horizon.
Skyward Specialty Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Skyward Specialty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Skyward Specialty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Skyward Specialty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 2.20 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 20 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 20 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
44.62 | 44.62 | 0.00 |
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Skyward Specialty Hype Timeline
Skyward Specialty is at this time traded for 44.62. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Skyward is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Skyward Specialty is about 668.69%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 44.62. About 12.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of Skyward Specialty was at this time reported as 23.75. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.72. Skyward Specialty had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 20 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Skyward Specialty to cross-verify your projections.Skyward Specialty Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Skyward Specialty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Skyward Specialty's future price movements. Getting to know how Skyward Specialty's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Skyward Specialty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HMN | Horace Mann Educators | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.30 | (0) | 2.18 | (2.17) | 6.64 | |
| STC | Stewart Information Services | 0.06 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.83 | (2.65) | 8.73 | |
| SLDE | Slide Insurance Holdings | (0.92) | 9 per month | 1.87 | 0.06 | 4.24 | (3.18) | 14.08 | |
| AHL | Aspen Insurance Holdings | 0.01 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 0.22 | (0.19) | 0.76 | |
| NIC | Nicolet Bankshares | 3.55 | 10 per month | 1.42 | 0.12 | 3.09 | (2.78) | 13.07 | |
| NWBI | Northwest Bancshares | 0.11 | 6 per month | 1.34 | 0.02 | 3.66 | (2.50) | 7.37 | |
| PACS | PACS Group | (2.14) | 15 per month | 2.41 | 0.21 | 8.95 | (6.63) | 63.26 | |
| CHCO | City Holding | 2.37 | 9 per month | 1.06 | 0.01 | 1.91 | (1.54) | 6.66 | |
| TY | Tri Continental Closed | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.04 | (0.89) | 7.86 | |
| SYBT | Stock Yards Bancorp | 0.25 | 7 per month | 1.43 | (0.01) | 3.29 | (1.87) | 9.60 |
Other Forecasting Options for Skyward Specialty
For every potential investor in Skyward, whether a beginner or expert, Skyward Specialty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Skyward Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Skyward. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Skyward Specialty's price trends.Skyward Specialty Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Skyward Specialty stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Skyward Specialty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Skyward Specialty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Skyward Specialty Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Skyward Specialty stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Skyward Specialty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Skyward Specialty stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Skyward Specialty Insurance entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Skyward Specialty Risk Indicators
The analysis of Skyward Specialty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Skyward Specialty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting skyward stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.09 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.2 | |||
| Variance | 4.86 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.83 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.37 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.77) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Skyward Specialty
The number of cover stories for Skyward Specialty depends on current market conditions and Skyward Specialty's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Skyward Specialty is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Skyward Specialty's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Skyward Specialty Short Properties
Skyward Specialty's future price predictability will typically decrease when Skyward Specialty's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Skyward Specialty Insurance often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Skyward Specialty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Skyward Specialty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 41.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.2 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Skyward Specialty to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the FinTech Suite module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.
Will Property & Casualty Insurance sector continue expanding? Could Skyward diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Skyward Specialty. If investors know Skyward will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Skyward Specialty data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Investors evaluate Skyward Specialty using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Skyward Specialty's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Skyward Specialty's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Skyward Specialty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Skyward Specialty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Skyward Specialty's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.