Southern Missouri Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| SMBC Stock | USD 62.18 1.52 2.51% |
Southern Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Southern Missouri stock prices and determine the direction of Southern Missouri Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Southern Missouri's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The value of RSI of Southern Missouri's share price is at 57. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Southern Missouri, making its price go up or down. Momentum 57
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Southern Missouri hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Southern Missouri Bancorp from the perspective of Southern Missouri response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Southern Missouri Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 61.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.00. Southern Missouri after-hype prediction price | USD 62.18 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Southern Missouri to cross-verify your projections. Southern Missouri Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Southern price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Southern using various technical indicators. When you analyze Southern charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Southern Missouri Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Southern Missouri Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 61.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86, mean absolute percentage error of 1.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.00.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Southern Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Southern Missouri's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Southern Missouri Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Southern Missouri | Southern Missouri Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Southern Missouri Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Southern Missouri's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Southern Missouri's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 59.75 and 63.09, respectively. We have considered Southern Missouri's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Southern Missouri stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Southern Missouri stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.59 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2215 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8644 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0146 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 51.0 |
Predictive Modules for Southern Missouri
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Southern Missouri Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Southern Missouri After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Southern Missouri at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Southern Missouri or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Southern Missouri, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Southern Missouri Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Southern Missouri's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Southern Missouri's historical news coverage. Southern Missouri's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 60.51 and 63.85, respectively. We have considered Southern Missouri's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Southern Missouri is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Southern Missouri Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Southern Missouri Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Southern Missouri is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Southern Missouri backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Southern Missouri, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.30 | 1.67 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 7 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
62.18 | 62.18 | 0.00 |
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Southern Missouri Hype Timeline
Southern Missouri Bancorp is at this time traded for 62.18. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Southern is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.3%. %. The volatility of related hype on Southern Missouri is about 2879.31%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 62.16. About 14.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.2. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Southern Missouri Bancorp recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.46. The entity last dividend was issued on the 13th of February 2026. The firm had 2:1 split on the 2nd of February 2015. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Southern Missouri to cross-verify your projections.Southern Missouri Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Southern Missouri's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Southern Missouri's future price movements. Getting to know how Southern Missouri's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Southern Missouri may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GSBC | Great Southern Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.77 | 0.04 | 2.88 | (2.01) | 14.35 | |
| SPFI | South Plains Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.12 | 0.09 | 2.82 | (2.20) | 9.14 | |
| BCAL | Southern California Bancorp | (0.58) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.84 | (1.97) | 5.74 | |
| IBCP | Independent Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.98 | 0.10 | 2.57 | (1.92) | 7.82 | |
| FCBC | First Community Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.57 | 0.04 | 3.86 | (2.14) | 9.31 | |
| SMBK | SmartFinancial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.31 | 0.10 | 2.94 | (1.44) | 8.85 | |
| THFF | First Financial | 0.27 | 4 per month | 1.11 | 0.13 | 3.55 | (1.53) | 10.39 | |
| MCBS | MetroCity Bankshares | (0.72) | 8 per month | 1.45 | 0.01 | 2.87 | (2.71) | 9.78 | |
| CUBI | Customers Bancorp | 0.18 | 5 per month | 1.88 | 0.10 | 3.73 | (2.67) | 14.63 | |
| CAC | Camden National | 0.27 | 6 per month | 1.30 | 0.16 | 3.78 | (2.43) | 10.30 |
Other Forecasting Options for Southern Missouri
For every potential investor in Southern, whether a beginner or expert, Southern Missouri's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Southern Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Southern. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Southern Missouri's price trends.Southern Missouri Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Southern Missouri stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Southern Missouri could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Southern Missouri by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Southern Missouri Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Southern Missouri stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Southern Missouri shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Southern Missouri stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Southern Missouri Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Southern Missouri Risk Indicators
The analysis of Southern Missouri's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Southern Missouri's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting southern stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Variance | 2.8 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.12 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.49 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.60) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Southern Missouri
The number of cover stories for Southern Missouri depends on current market conditions and Southern Missouri's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Southern Missouri is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Southern Missouri's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Southern Missouri Short Properties
Southern Missouri's future price predictability will typically decrease when Southern Missouri's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Southern Missouri Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Southern Missouri's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Southern Missouri's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 11.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 653.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Southern Missouri to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could Southern diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Southern Missouri. If investors know Southern will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Southern Missouri data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Southern Missouri Bancorp's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Southern's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Southern Missouri's intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Southern Missouri's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Southern Missouri's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Southern Missouri is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Southern Missouri's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.