Standard Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

SMP Stock  USD 31.21  0.21  0.67%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Standard Motor Products on the next trading day is expected to be 31.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 87.82. Standard Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Standard's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Standard's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Standard fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Standard's Inventory Turnover is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 01/17/2025, Payables Turnover is likely to grow to 11.41, while Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 4.85. . As of 01/17/2025, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 19.3 M. In addition to that, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop to about 39 M.

Open Interest Against 2025-02-21 Standard Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Standard's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Standard's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Standard stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Standard's open interest, investors have to compare it to Standard's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Standard is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Standard. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Standard price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Standard Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 18th of January 2025

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Standard Motor Products on the next trading day is expected to be 31.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.44, mean absolute percentage error of 2.91, and the sum of the absolute errors of 87.82.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Standard Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Standard's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Standard Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest StandardStandard Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Standard Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Standard's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Standard's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.66 and 34.74, respectively. We have considered Standard's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
31.21
31.70
Expected Value
34.74
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Standard stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Standard stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.1802
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.4397
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0455
SAESum of the absolute errors87.8225
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Standard Motor Products historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Standard

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Standard Motor Products. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
28.2831.3234.36
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
28.0936.0039.04
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
36.8640.5044.96
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.770.780.80
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Standard

For every potential investor in Standard, whether a beginner or expert, Standard's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Standard Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Standard. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Standard's price trends.

Standard Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Standard stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Standard could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Standard by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Standard Motor Products Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Standard's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Standard's current price.

Standard Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Standard stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Standard shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Standard stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Standard Motor Products entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Standard Risk Indicators

The analysis of Standard's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Standard's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting standard stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Standard

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Standard position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Standard will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Standard Stock

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Moving against Standard Stock

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  0.48FFIE Faraday Future IntelPairCorr
  0.47LI Li AutoPairCorr
  0.4FRSX Foresight AutonomousPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Standard could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Standard when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Standard - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Standard Motor Products to buy it.
The correlation of Standard is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Standard moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Standard Motor Products moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Standard can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Standard Stock Analysis

When running Standard's price analysis, check to measure Standard's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Standard is operating at the current time. Most of Standard's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Standard's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Standard's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Standard to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.