Simply Good Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SMPL Stock | USD 39.84 0.83 2.13% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Simply Good Foods on the next trading day is expected to be 39.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.26. Simply Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Simply Good's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Simply Good's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Simply Good fundamentals over time.
Simply |
Simply Good Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Simply Good's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 2011-08-31 | Previous Quarter 208.7 M | Current Value 132.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 64.7 M |
Simply Good Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Simply Good Foods on the next trading day is expected to be 39.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Simply Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Simply Good's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Simply Good Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Simply Good | Simply Good Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Simply Good Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Simply Good's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Simply Good's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 38.38 and 41.34, respectively. We have considered Simply Good's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Simply Good stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Simply Good stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.2641 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3429 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.01 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21.2589 |
Predictive Modules for Simply Good
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Simply Good Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Simply Good
For every potential investor in Simply, whether a beginner or expert, Simply Good's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Simply Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Simply. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Simply Good's price trends.Simply Good Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Simply Good stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Simply Good could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Simply Good by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Simply Good Foods Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Simply Good's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Simply Good's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Simply Good Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Simply Good stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Simply Good shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Simply Good stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Simply Good Foods entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 30878.26 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.8137 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 39.49 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 39.61 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.77 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.83 |
Simply Good Risk Indicators
The analysis of Simply Good's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Simply Good's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting simply stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.03 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Variance | 2.12 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.82 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.06 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.26) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Simply Good to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Is Packaged Foods & Meats space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Simply Good. If investors know Simply will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Simply Good listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.19) | Earnings Share 1.38 | Revenue Per Share 13.323 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.172 | Return On Assets 0.0631 |
The market value of Simply Good Foods is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Simply that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Simply Good's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Simply Good's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Simply Good's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Simply Good's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Simply Good's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Simply Good is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Simply Good's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.