Simply Good Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| SMPL Stock | USD 18.75 0.48 2.50% |
Simply Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Simply Good's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Simply Good's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Simply Good fundamentals over time.
As of now, the relative strength index (RSI) of Simply Good's share price is approaching 42. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Simply Good, making its price go up or down. Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.33) | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.951 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.1979 | Wall Street Target Price 28.5 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.3606 |
Using Simply Good hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Simply Good Foods from the perspective of Simply Good response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Simply Good using Simply Good's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Simply using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Simply Good's stock price.
Simply Good Short Interest
An investor who is long Simply Good may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Simply Good and may potentially protect profits, hedge Simply Good with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 27.4193 | Short Percent 0.0908 | Short Ratio 2.61 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.7 M | 50 Day MA 19.7928 |
Simply Relative Strength Index
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Simply Good Foods on the next trading day is expected to be 19.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.83.Simply Good Foods Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Simply Good's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Simply. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Simply can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Simply Good Foods. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Simply Good's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Simply Good.
Simply Good Implied Volatility | 0.68 |
Simply Good's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Simply Good Foods stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Simply Good's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Simply Good stock will not fluctuate a lot when Simply Good's options are near their expiration.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Simply Good Foods on the next trading day is expected to be 19.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.83. Simply Good after-hype prediction price | USD 18.76 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Simply Good to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Simply contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Simply Good Foods will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0425% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Simply Good trading at USD 18.75, that is roughly USD 0.007969 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Simply Good's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Simply Good Foods options at the current volatility level of 0.68%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Simply Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Simply Good's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Simply Good's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Simply Good stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Simply Good's open interest, investors have to compare it to Simply Good's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Simply Good is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Simply. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Simply Good Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Simply price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Simply using various technical indicators. When you analyze Simply charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Simply Good Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Simply Good Foods on the next trading day is expected to be 19.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49, mean absolute percentage error of 0.36, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.83.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Simply Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Simply Good's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Simply Good Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Simply Good | Simply Good Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Simply Good Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Simply Good's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Simply Good's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.61 and 21.61, respectively. We have considered Simply Good's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Simply Good stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Simply Good stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.0849 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.489 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0247 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 29.8274 |
Predictive Modules for Simply Good
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Simply Good Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Simply Good After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Simply Good at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Simply Good or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Simply Good, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Simply Good Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Simply Good's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Simply Good's historical news coverage. Simply Good's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 16.76 and 20.76, respectively. We have considered Simply Good's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Simply Good is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Simply Good Foods is based on 3 months time horizon.
Simply Good Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Simply Good is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Simply Good backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Simply Good, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 2.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
18.75 | 18.76 | 0.05 |
|
Simply Good Hype Timeline
Simply Good Foods is at this time traded for 18.75. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Simply is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 18.76 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.07%. The volatility of related hype on Simply Good is about 15000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.75. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.45 B. Net Income was 103.61 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 506.57 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Simply Good to cross-verify your projections.Simply Good Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Simply Good's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Simply Good's future price movements. Getting to know how Simply Good's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Simply Good may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CENT | Central Garden Pet | (0.13) | 9 per month | 1.46 | 0.01 | 3.16 | (2.66) | 11.94 | |
| JJSF | J J Snack | (0.25) | 10 per month | 1.47 | 0.01 | 2.79 | (2.71) | 9.39 | |
| NOMD | Nomad Foods | (0.05) | 10 per month | 1.11 | 0.04 | 2.58 | (2.18) | 8.79 | |
| PRDO | Perdoceo Education Corp | (0.62) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.71 | (3.17) | 11.89 | |
| FLO | Flowers Foods | (0.69) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.55 | (3.72) | 11.13 | |
| FDP | Fresh Del Monte | 1.52 | 9 per month | 1.45 | 0.1 | 2.19 | (2.57) | 8.48 | |
| STRA | Strategic Education | 0.38 | 11 per month | 2.21 | (0.01) | 2.32 | (4.08) | 12.29 | |
| SAM | Boston Beer | 0.27 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 3.04 | (3.36) | 7.94 | |
| MH | McGraw Hill | (0.31) | 12 per month | 2.85 | 0.06 | 6.07 | (3.45) | 34.91 |
Other Forecasting Options for Simply Good
For every potential investor in Simply, whether a beginner or expert, Simply Good's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Simply Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Simply. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Simply Good's price trends.Simply Good Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Simply Good stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Simply Good could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Simply Good by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Simply Good Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Simply Good stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Simply Good shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Simply Good stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Simply Good Foods entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 18.75 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 18.75 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.24) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.48) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.13 |
Simply Good Risk Indicators
The analysis of Simply Good's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Simply Good's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting simply stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.55 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.99 | |||
| Variance | 3.94 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Simply Good
The number of cover stories for Simply Good depends on current market conditions and Simply Good's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Simply Good is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Simply Good's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Simply Good Short Properties
Simply Good's future price predictability will typically decrease when Simply Good's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Simply Good Foods often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Simply Good's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Simply Good's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 101.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 98.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Simply Good to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Is Packaged Foods & Meats space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Simply Good. If investors know Simply will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Simply Good assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.33) | Earnings Share 0.9 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0) | Return On Assets |
The market value of Simply Good Foods is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Simply that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Simply Good's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Simply Good's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Simply Good's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Simply Good's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Simply Good's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Simply Good is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, Simply Good's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.