1st Source Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| SRCE Stock | USD 66.15 1.25 1.85% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of 1st Source on the next trading day is expected to be 66.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.63 and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.33. 1st Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast 1st Source stock prices and determine the direction of 1st Source's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of 1st Source's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of 1st Source's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.213 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.5833 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.48 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.3767 | Wall Street Target Price 72.6667 |
Using 1st Source hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of 1st Source from the perspective of 1st Source response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards 1st Source using 1st Source's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards 1st using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of 1st Source's stock price.
1st Source Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in 1st Source's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards 1st. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of 1st Source stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 61.5991 | Short Percent 0.0119 | Short Ratio 1.9 | Shares Short Prior Month 189.3 K | 50 Day MA 63.569 |
1st Source Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to 1st Source's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in 1st. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding 1st can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around 1st Source. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
1st Source Implied Volatility | 0.58 |
1st Source's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of 1st Source stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if 1st Source's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that 1st Source stock will not fluctuate a lot when 1st Source's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of 1st Source on the next trading day is expected to be 66.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.63 and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.33. 1st Source after-hype prediction price | USD 67.33 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of 1st Source to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current 1st contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that 1st Source will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0363% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With 1st Source trading at USD 66.15, that is roughly USD 0.024 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating 1st Source's daily price movement you should consider acquiring 1st Source options at the current volatility level of 0.58%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 1st Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast 1st Source's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in 1st Source's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for 1st Source stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current 1st Source's open interest, investors have to compare it to 1st Source's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of 1st Source is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in 1st. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
1st Source Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine 1st price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for 1st using various technical indicators. When you analyze 1st charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
1st Source Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of 1st Source on the next trading day is expected to be 66.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.63, mean absolute percentage error of 0.69, and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.33.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict 1st Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that 1st Source's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
1st Source Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest 1st Source | 1st Source Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
1st Source Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting 1st Source's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. 1st Source's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 64.89 and 67.41, respectively. We have considered 1st Source's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of 1st Source stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent 1st Source stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.0585 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1596 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6326 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.01 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 37.325 |
Predictive Modules for 1st Source
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as 1st Source. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of 1st Source's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
1st Source After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of 1st Source at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in 1st Source or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of 1st Source, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
1st Source Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting 1st Source's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on 1st Source's historical news coverage. 1st Source's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 66.09 and 68.57, respectively. We have considered 1st Source's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
1st Source is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of 1st Source is based on 3 months time horizon.
1st Source Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as 1st Source is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading 1st Source backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with 1st Source, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 1.26 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
66.15 | 67.33 | 0.10 |
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1st Source Hype Timeline
1st Source is at this time traded for 66.15. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. 1st is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 67.33. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.1%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.19%. The volatility of related hype on 1st Source is about 363.11%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 66.22. About 26.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.33. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. 1st Source has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.03. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.01. The firm last dividend was issued on the 4th of November 2025. 1st Source had 11:10 split on the 3rd of August 2006. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of 1st Source to cross-verify your projections.1st Source Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to 1st Source's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict 1st Source's future price movements. Getting to know how 1st Source's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how 1st Source may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| STBA | ST Bancorp | (0.58) | 8 per month | 1.02 | 0.16 | 2.62 | (1.64) | 6.81 | |
| LKFN | Lakeland Financial | 1.90 | 13 per month | 1.34 | (0.03) | 3.02 | (2.46) | 7.98 | |
| TCBK | TriCo Bancshares | (0.42) | 10 per month | 0.84 | 0.18 | 3.41 | (1.65) | 5.90 | |
| GABC | German American Bancorp | 0.51 | 11 per month | 1.02 | 0.05 | 3.00 | (1.86) | 6.11 | |
| FRME | First Merchants | 0.30 | 13 per month | 1.02 | 0.05 | 2.91 | (1.50) | 6.34 | |
| MBIN | Merchants Bancorp | 0.43 | 8 per month | 1.53 | 0.07 | 3.89 | (2.87) | 8.29 | |
| STEL | Stellar Bancorp | (0.38) | 8 per month | 0.76 | 0.09 | 2.67 | (1.58) | 6.09 | |
| NBHC | National Bank Holdings | (0.45) | 9 per month | 1.02 | 0.09 | 2.85 | (2.64) | 6.32 | |
| FCF | First Commonwealth Financial | 0.02 | 8 per month | 1.14 | 0.08 | 2.92 | (1.33) | 7.09 | |
| LOB | Live Oak Bancshares | 2.14 | 11 per month | 1.49 | 0.1 | 5.13 | (2.50) | 8.08 |
Other Forecasting Options for 1st Source
For every potential investor in 1st, whether a beginner or expert, 1st Source's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. 1st Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in 1st. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying 1st Source's price trends.1st Source Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with 1st Source stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of 1st Source could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing 1st Source by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
1st Source Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how 1st Source stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading 1st Source shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying 1st Source stock market strength indicators, traders can identify 1st Source entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 7260.83 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.33) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 67.41 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 66.99 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.88) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.25) |
1st Source Risk Indicators
The analysis of 1st Source's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in 1st Source's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting 1st stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9518 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Variance | 1.83 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.33 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.906 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.25) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for 1st Source
The number of cover stories for 1st Source depends on current market conditions and 1st Source's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that 1st Source is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about 1st Source's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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1st Source Short Properties
1st Source's future price predictability will typically decrease when 1st Source's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of 1st Source often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential 1st Source's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. 1st Source's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 24.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of 1st Source to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade 1st Stock refer to our How to Trade 1st Stock guide.You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of 1st Source. If investors know 1st will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about 1st Source listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.213 | Dividend Share 1.52 | Earnings Share 6.01 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.141 |
The market value of 1st Source is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of 1st that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of 1st Source's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is 1st Source's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because 1st Source's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect 1st Source's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between 1st Source's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if 1st Source is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, 1st Source's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.