1st Source Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SRCE Stock | USD 66.29 1.27 1.95% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of 1st Source on the next trading day is expected to be 66.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.70. 1st Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast 1st Source stock prices and determine the direction of 1st Source's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of 1st Source's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
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1st Source Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of 1st Source on the next trading day is expected to be 66.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86, mean absolute percentage error of 1.83, and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.70.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict 1st Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that 1st Source's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
1st Source Stock Forecast Pattern
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1st Source Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting 1st Source's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. 1st Source's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 64.13 and 68.45, respectively. We have considered 1st Source's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of 1st Source stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent 1st Source stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.8783 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.087 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8617 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0141 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 51.7 |
Predictive Modules for 1st Source
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as 1st Source. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of 1st Source's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for 1st Source
For every potential investor in 1st, whether a beginner or expert, 1st Source's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. 1st Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in 1st. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying 1st Source's price trends.View 1st Source Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
1st Source Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of 1st Source's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of 1st Source's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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1st Source Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how 1st Source stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading 1st Source shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying 1st Source stock market strength indicators, traders can identify 1st Source entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
1st Source Risk Indicators
The analysis of 1st Source's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in 1st Source's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting 1st stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.41 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.51 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.23 | |||
| Variance | 4.98 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.83 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.27 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.63) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether 1st Source is a strong investment it is important to analyze 1st Source's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact 1st Source's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding 1st Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of 1st Source to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade 1st Stock refer to our How to Trade 1st Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of 1st Source. If investors know 1st will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about 1st Source listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.068 | Dividend Share 1.4 | Earnings Share 5.25 | Revenue Per Share 15.077 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.021 |
The market value of 1st Source is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of 1st that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of 1st Source's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is 1st Source's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because 1st Source's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect 1st Source's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between 1st Source's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if 1st Source is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, 1st Source's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.